{
  "title": "Remittances in Times of Uncertainty: Understanding the Dynamics and Implications",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 22, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507/index.md",
  "summary": "This paper delves into the intricate relationship between uncertainty and remittance flows. The prevailing focus has been on tangible risk factors like exchange rate volatility and economic downturn, overshadowing the potential impact of uncertainty on remittance dynamics.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Research scope and dataset",
      "content": "- New dataset of quarterly remittances combined with uncertainty indicators across 77 developing countries from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4.\n- Working Paper No. 2024/244; Pages: 39; Volume: 2024; Issue: 244; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293450.001; ISBN: 9798400293450; ISSN: 1018-5941."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings on uncertainty and remittance flows",
      "content": "- Uncertainty in remittance-sending countries negatively affects remittance flows.\n- Uncertainty in remittance-receiving countries has a heterogeneous and non-linear effect:\n  - In countries with high private investment ratios, rising domestic uncertainty leads to a decline in remittances.\n  - In countries with low public spending on education and health, remittances increase in response to uncertainty, functioning as a social safety net.\n- The analysis emphasizes that domestic uncertainty does not produce uniform effects across countries; effects depend on country-specific characteristics such as private investment ratios and public spending on education and health."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Thematic implications and analysis",
      "content": "- Emphasis on the distinction between tangible risk factors (exchange rate volatility, economic downturn) and more diffuse uncertainty measures; the latter can play an independent and significant role in remittance dynamics.\n- The dual role of remittances: acting both as a countercyclical buffer in contexts with limited public social spending and as a flow that can contract when domestic private-sector investment prospects deteriorate.\n- Heterogeneous and non-linear relationships indicate that policy responses and vulnerability assessments should be tailored to country-specific fiscal and investment profiles."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords covered",
      "content": "- Subject: Balance of payments, Expenditure, Health care spending, Migration, National accounts, Population and demographics, Private investment, Remittances.\n- Keywords: Global, Health care spending, IRF of remittance, Migration, Private investment, remittance dynamics, remittance flow, Remittances, remittances in times, Shocks, Uncertainty, uncertainty indicator.\n\nIMF Working Paper by Patrick A. Imam, Kangni R Kpodar, Djoulassi K. Oloufade, and Vigninou Gammadigbe; November 22, 2024.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Patrick A. Imam, Kangni R Kpodar, Djoulassi K. Oloufade, Vigninou Gammadigbe",
    "Published: November 22, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293450.001",
    "New dataset of quarterly remittances combined with uncertainty indicators across 77 developing countries from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4.",
    "Working Paper No. 2024/244; Pages: 39; Volume: 2024; Issue: 244; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293450.001; ISBN: 9798400293450; ISSN: 1018-5941.",
    "Uncertainty in remittance-sending countries negatively affects remittance flows.",
    "Uncertainty in remittance-receiving countries has a heterogeneous and non-linear effect:",
    "The analysis emphasizes that domestic uncertainty does not produce uniform effects across countries; effects depend on country-specific characteristics such as private investment ratios and public spending on education and health.",
    "Emphasis on the distinction between tangible risk factors (exchange rate volatility, economic downturn) and more diffuse uncertainty measures; the latter can play an independent and significant role in remittance dynamics.",
    "The dual role of remittances: acting both as a countercyclical buffer in contexts with limited public social spending and as a flow that can contract when domestic private-sector investment prospects deteriorate.",
    "Heterogeneous and non-linear relationships indicate that policy responses and vulnerability assessments should be tailored to country-specific fiscal and investment profiles.",
    "Subject: Balance of payments, Expenditure, Health care spending, Migration, National accounts, Population and demographics, Private investment, Remittances.",
    "Keywords: Global, Health care spending, IRF of remittance, Migration, Private investment, remittance dynamics, remittance flow, Remittances, remittances in times, Shocks, Uncertainty, uncertainty indicator.",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024244-print-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024244-print-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2024/english/wpiea2024244-print-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/11/22/remittances-in-times-of-uncertainty-understanding-the-dynamics-and-implications-557507/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T00:58:42.113Z"
}