{
  "title": "The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, December 20, 2024",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/12/17/the-urgency-of-conflict-prevention-a-macroeconomic-perspective-559143",
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  "summary": "Can macroeconomic policy effectively help prevent armed conflicts? This paper contends that two key criteria need to be satisfied: the long-term benefits of prevention policies must exceed the costs associated with uncertain forecasts, and the policies themselves must be directly able to contribute",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Research question and evaluative criteria",
      "content": "- Can macroeconomic policy effectively help prevent armed conflicts?\n- Two key criteria established for effectiveness:\n  - The long-term benefits of prevention policies must exceed the costs associated with uncertain forecasts.\n  - The policies themselves must be directly able to contribute to conflict prevention."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Proposes policy simulations based on a novel method of Mueller et al (2024a) that integrates machine learning and dynamic optimization.\n- Uses simulation evidence to assess long-run benefits and rates of return to prevention policies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key quantitative findings",
      "content": "- Returns to prevention policies in countries that have not suffered recently from violence range from $26 to $75 per $1 spent on prevention.\n- For countries with recent violence, the rate of return could be as high as $103 per $1 spent on prevention.\n- Paper length: 49 pages.\n- Series and identifiers:\n  - Working Paper No. 2024/256\n  - Volume: 2024\n  - Issue: 256\n  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001\n  - ISBN: 9798400293832\n  - ISSN: 1018-5941\n  - Stock No: WPIEA2024256"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Interpretation and evidence synthesis",
      "content": "- Simulation results indicate that investing in prevention can generate huge long-run benefits.\n- Analysis of available data and results in the literature suggest that:\n  - Sound macroeconomic policies can play key roles in conflict prevention.\n  - International support for sound macroeconomic policies can also play key roles in conflict prevention."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Actionable recommendations (targeted audiences)",
      "content": "- For global policymakers:\n  - Promote and support macroeconomic prevention policies that demonstrate favorable long-term benefit-cost profiles.\n- For domestic policymakers:\n  - Design and implement macroeconomic policies that can directly contribute to reducing conflict risk, guided by evidence from policy simulations and machine-learning-informed optimization.\n- For international financial institutions and multilateral organizations:\n  - Provide international support and policy frameworks to strengthen domestic macroeconomic prevention efforts and scale interventions with high returns to prevention."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance\n- Keywords: Africa, building state capacity, Caribbean, conflict, conflict prevention, conflict stage country, et al, Fiscal stance, fragile state, Global, machine learning, Policy recommendation, policy simulation, Prevention, prevention policy\n\nHannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin R Seimon, and Raphael A Espinoza. \"The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective\", IMF Working Papers 2024, 256 (2024), December 20, 2024, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/12/17/the-urgency-of-conflict-prevention-a-macroeconomic-perspective-559143"
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    "Authors: Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin R Seimon, Raphael A Espinoza",
    "Published: December 20, 2024",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001",
    "Can macroeconomic policy effectively help prevent armed conflicts?",
    "Two key criteria established for effectiveness:",
    "Proposes policy simulations based on a novel method of Mueller et al (2024a) that integrates machine learning and dynamic optimization.",
    "Uses simulation evidence to assess long-run benefits and rates of return to prevention policies.",
    "Returns to prevention policies in countries that have not suffered recently from violence range from $26 to $75 per $1 spent on prevention.",
    "For countries with recent violence, the rate of return could be as high as $103 per $1 spent on prevention.",
    "Paper length: 49 pages.",
    "Series and identifiers:",
    "Simulation results indicate that investing in prevention can generate huge long-run benefits.",
    "Analysis of available data and results in the literature suggest that:",
    "For global policymakers:",
    "For domestic policymakers:",
    "For international financial institutions and multilateral organizations:",
    "Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance",
    "Keywords: Africa, building state capacity, Caribbean, conflict, conflict prevention, conflict stage country, et al, Fiscal stance, fragile state, Global, machine learning, Policy recommendation, policy simulation, Prevention, prevention policy",
    "**Working Paper**"
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