## The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective

_IMF Working Papers, December 20, 2024_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin R Seimon, Raphael A Espinoza
- Published: December 20, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001

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### Research question and evaluative criteria
- Can macroeconomic policy effectively help prevent armed conflicts?
- Two key criteria established for effectiveness:
  - The long-term benefits of prevention policies must exceed the costs associated with uncertain forecasts.
  - The policies themselves must be directly able to contribute to conflict prevention.

### Methodology
- Proposes policy simulations based on a novel method of Mueller et al (2024a) that integrates machine learning and dynamic optimization.
- Uses simulation evidence to assess long-run benefits and rates of return to prevention policies.

### Key quantitative findings
- Returns to prevention policies in countries that have not suffered recently from violence range from $26 to $75 per $1 spent on prevention.
- For countries with recent violence, the rate of return could be as high as $103 per $1 spent on prevention.
- Paper length: 49 pages.
- Series and identifiers:
  - Working Paper No. 2024/256
  - Volume: 2024
  - Issue: 256
  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001
  - ISBN: 9798400293832
  - ISSN: 1018-5941
  - Stock No: WPIEA2024256

### Interpretation and evidence synthesis
- Simulation results indicate that investing in prevention can generate huge long-run benefits.
- Analysis of available data and results in the literature suggest that:
  - Sound macroeconomic policies can play key roles in conflict prevention.
  - International support for sound macroeconomic policies can also play key roles in conflict prevention.

### Actionable recommendations (targeted audiences)
- For global policymakers:
  - Promote and support macroeconomic prevention policies that demonstrate favorable long-term benefit-cost profiles.
- For domestic policymakers:
  - Design and implement macroeconomic policies that can directly contribute to reducing conflict risk, guided by evidence from policy simulations and machine-learning-informed optimization.
- For international financial institutions and multilateral organizations:
  - Provide international support and policy frameworks to strengthen domestic macroeconomic prevention efforts and scale interventions with high returns to prevention.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance
- Keywords: Africa, building state capacity, Caribbean, conflict, conflict prevention, conflict stage country, et al, Fiscal stance, fragile state, Global, machine learning, Policy recommendation, policy simulation, Prevention, prevention policy

*Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh, Benjamin R Seimon, and Raphael A Espinoza. "The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective", IMF Working Papers 2024, 256 (2024), December 20, 2024, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400293832.001*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/12/17/the-urgency-of-conflict-prevention-a-macroeconomic-perspective-559143_