{
  "title": "Lost Generations? Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 21, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380/index.md",
  "summary": "The total fertility rate—the average number of births per woman—in Europe is already at 1.46, which is significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1, where fertility compensates for mortality and thereby the population replaces itself from one generation to the next.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and Key Findings",
      "content": "- The total fertility rate in Europe is 1.46, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1.\n- Falling fertility rates and the associated fast-aging population are identified as a significant drag on real GDP per capita growth.\n- Empirical results show that fertility has a significant positive effect on real GDP per capita growth in a sample of 42 European countries over the period 1960–2022.\n- The paper addresses endogeneity bias from reverse causality by implementing an instrumental variable approach."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Identification strategy: instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity caused by reverse causality.\n- Instrument used: exogenous variation in the comparative abortion index as an instrument for the total fertility rate.\n- Sample and period: 42 European countries, 1960–2022."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy-Relevant Implications",
      "content": "- Below-replacement fertility coupled with rapid population aging has far-reaching social and economic consequences that can depress income per capita growth.\n- Quantitative estimation of fertility’s impact and testing for mitigating factors can inform appropriate policy responses to counteract the growth drag from low fertility and aging."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publication and Metadata",
      "content": "- Title: Lost Generations? Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe\n- Author: Serhan Cevik\n- Publication type: IMF Working Papers (Working Paper No. 2025/055)\n- Date: March 21, 2025\n- Pages: 19\n- Volume: 2025\n- Issue: 055\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229004732.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2025055\n- ISBN: 9798229004732\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Subjects: Aging, Gender, Gender diversity, Labor, Labor force, Labor force participation, Population and demographics\n- Keywords: Aging, copyright page, demographic trends, economic growth, economic growth in Europe, Europe, Fertility, fertility behavior, Gender diversity, Global, IMF working papers, Labor force, Labor force participation, views of the IMF\n\nSource: IMF Working Paper — \"Lost Generations? Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe\" by Serhan Cevik, March 21, 2025.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Serhan Cevik",
    "Published: March 21, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229004732.001",
    "The total fertility rate in Europe is 1.46, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1.",
    "Falling fertility rates and the associated fast-aging population are identified as a significant drag on real GDP per capita growth.",
    "Empirical results show that fertility has a significant positive effect on real GDP per capita growth in a sample of 42 European countries over the period 1960–2022.",
    "The paper addresses endogeneity bias from reverse causality by implementing an instrumental variable approach.",
    "Identification strategy: instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity caused by reverse causality.",
    "Instrument used: exogenous variation in the comparative abortion index as an instrument for the total fertility rate.",
    "Sample and period: 42 European countries, 1960–2022.",
    "Below-replacement fertility coupled with rapid population aging has far-reaching social and economic consequences that can depress income per capita growth.",
    "Quantitative estimation of fertility’s impact and testing for mitigating factors can inform appropriate policy responses to counteract the growth drag from low fertility and aging.",
    "Title: Lost Generations? Fertility and Economic Growth in Europe",
    "Author: Serhan Cevik",
    "Publication type: IMF Working Papers (Working Paper No. 2025/055)",
    "Date: March 21, 2025",
    "Pages: 19",
    "Volume: 2025",
    "Issue: 055",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229004732.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2025055",
    "ISBN: 9798229004732",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subjects: Aging, Gender, Gender diversity, Labor, Labor force, Labor force participation, Population and demographics",
    "Keywords: Aging, copyright page, demographic trends, economic growth, economic growth in Europe, Europe, Fertility, fertility behavior, Gender diversity, Global, IMF working papers, Labor force, Labor force participation, views of the IMF",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025055-print-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025055-print-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025055-print-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/03/21/lost-generations-fertility-and-economic-growth-in-europe-565380/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T01:28:14.383Z"
}