{
  "title": "Nowcasting Global Trade from Space",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 16, 2025",
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  "summary": "We introduce a nowcasting model of global maritime trade, leveraging satellite-based big data on vessel movements. This provides a timely indicator of global trade as shipping accounts for about 80 percent of worldwide merchandise trade by volume.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Introduces a nowcasting model of global maritime trade leveraging satellite-based big data on vessel movements.\n- Shipping accounts for about 80 percent of worldwide merchandise trade by volume.\n- Approach mimics key features of statistical trade compilation: measure customs value of imports and exports first, form import and export price deflators, then estimate import and export volumes.\n- Monthly nowcasts can be used to monitor fragmentation and regionalization in global maritime trade."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodological approach",
      "content": "- Uses port-level data from IMF PortWatch to obtain global and regional nowcasts.\n- Mirrors the sequence used by statisticians: \n  - Measure customs value of imported and exported goods.\n  - Form import and export price deflators.\n  - Estimate import and export volumes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Platform and data enhancements",
      "content": "- Highlights important enhancements to the IMF PortWatch platform since its beta launch in November 2023.\n- Relies on satellite-based big data on vessel movements to provide timely indicators."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Applications and implications",
      "content": "- Provides a timely indicator of global trade flows, with potential use for monitoring:\n  - Fragmentation in maritime trade.\n  - Regionalization in maritime trade.\n- Useful for nowcasting global and regional trade developments on a monthly frequency."
    },
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      "content": "- Title: Nowcasting Global Trade from Space\n- Authors: Serkan Arslanalp; Seung Mo Choi; Parisa Kamali; Robin Koepke; Matthew McKetty; Michele Ruta; Mario Saraiva; Alessandra Sozzi; Jasper Verschuur\n- Date: May 16, 2025\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2025/093\n- Volume: 2025\n- Issue: 093\n- Pages: 37\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009294.001\n- ISBN: 9798229009294\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Stock No: WPIEA2025093\n- Subject tags: Commodities; Economic forecasting; Exports; Imports; International trade; Oil; Trade balance\n- Keywords: big data; containerized trade; Europe; export price deflator; Exports; Global; IMF PortWatch; Imports; maritime trade; Middle East and Central Asia; Nowcasting; Oil; Trade balance; trade data; trade estimate; trade value\n\nIMF Working Paper No. 2025/093, May 16, 2025.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/05/16/nowcasting-global-trade-from-space-566957"
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    "Authors: Serkan Arslanalp, Seung Mo Choi, Parisa Kamali, Robin Koepke, Matthew McKetty, Michele Ruta, Mario Saraiva, Alessandra Sozzi, Jasper Verschuur",
    "Published: May 16, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009294.001",
    "Introduces a nowcasting model of global maritime trade leveraging satellite-based big data on vessel movements.",
    "Shipping accounts for about 80 percent of worldwide merchandise trade by volume.",
    "Approach mimics key features of statistical trade compilation: measure customs value of imports and exports first, form import and export price deflators, then estimate import and export volumes.",
    "Monthly nowcasts can be used to monitor fragmentation and regionalization in global maritime trade.",
    "Uses port-level data from IMF PortWatch to obtain global and regional nowcasts.",
    "Mirrors the sequence used by statisticians:",
    "Highlights important enhancements to the IMF PortWatch platform since its beta launch in November 2023.",
    "Relies on satellite-based big data on vessel movements to provide timely indicators.",
    "Provides a timely indicator of global trade flows, with potential use for monitoring:",
    "Useful for nowcasting global and regional trade developments on a monthly frequency.",
    "Title: Nowcasting Global Trade from Space",
    "Authors: Serkan Arslanalp; Seung Mo Choi; Parisa Kamali; Robin Koepke; Matthew McKetty; Michele Ruta; Mario Saraiva; Alessandra Sozzi; Jasper Verschuur",
    "Date: May 16, 2025",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2025/093",
    "Volume: 2025",
    "Issue: 093",
    "Pages: 37",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009294.001",
    "ISBN: 9798229009294",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2025093",
    "Subject tags: Commodities; Economic forecasting; Exports; Imports; International trade; Oil; Trade balance",
    "Keywords: big data; containerized trade; Europe; export price deflator; Exports; Global; IMF PortWatch; Imports; maritime trade; Middle East and Central Asia; Nowcasting; Oil; Trade balance; trade data; trade estimate; trade value",
    "**Working Paper**"
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