## Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa

_IMF Working Papers, May 16, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Nowcasting Real GDP in Samoa](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/05/16/nowcasting-real-gdp-in-samoa-566993)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/05/16/nowcasting-real-gdp-in-samoa-566993/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/05/16/nowcasting-real-gdp-in-samoa-566993/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/05/16/nowcasting-real-gdp-in-samoa-566993/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Geoffrey M Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian J Nield, Eucharist Muaulu, Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga, Aiulu Tolovaa
- Published: May 16, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009782.001

---

### Overview
- Purpose: Strengthen nowcasting capacity at the Central Bank of Samoa (CBS) to estimate the present and near-term forecast of real GDP in Samoa.
- Motivation: Real GDP data release experiences up to a 90-day lag.
- Authors: Geoffrey M Heenan, Karras Lui, Ian J Nield, Eucharist Muaulu, Viiaonaoperesi Reupena, Ivy Sabuga, Aiulu Tolovaa
- Date: May 16, 2025

### Data and Methods
- High-frequency datasets compiled: tourism receipts, agriculture market survey, remittances, among others.
- Nowcasting methods employed:
  - Bridge
  - Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS)
  - Unrestricted MIDAS (U-MIDAS)
- Evaluation metric: root mean squared error (RMSE)
- Samples analyzed: full sample and pre-COVID-19 sample
- Crisis performance assessment: analysis includes the COVID-19 pandemic period to evaluate turning-point detection.

### Key Findings
- All three nowcasting methods (Bridge, MIDAS, U-MIDAS) significantly outperform naive forecasts.
- Forecast combination of the three methods minimizes the RMSE for both full and pre-COVID-19 samples.
- U-MIDAS performs better during crises, particularly in identifying turning points during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Strengthening nowcasting capacity is important given the up to 90-day lag in official real GDP releases.

### Policy Implications and Recommendations
- Continue developing and operationalizing nowcasting tools at CBS to reduce informational lags for policy decisions.
- Use forecast combinations (Bridge, MIDAS, U-MIDAS) to minimize RMSE in routine nowcasting.
- Deploy U-MIDAS or place greater weight on it during crisis periods to improve early detection of turning points.
- Maintain and expand high-frequency data collection (tourism receipts, agriculture market surveys, remittances, etc.) to feed nowcasting models.

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
  - [Working Paper (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025092-print-pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Working Paper (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025092-print-pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/05/16/nowcasting-real-gdp-in-samoa-566993_