{
  "title": "Labor Market Consequences of Homicides: Evidence from Mexico",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, May 23, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/05/23/labor-market-consequences-of-homicides-evidence-from-mexico-566288",
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  "summary": "This paper explores how fluctuations in crime rates influence labor market outcomes in Mexico. Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Core findings",
      "content": "- Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates.\n- Men are more likely to exit the labor market due to reduced demand for their labor.\n- Women increasingly join the workforce, mainly in the informal sector, to offset the decline in male labor supply.\n- The gendered outcome is largely driven by the presence of drug trafficking organizations, which primarily employ men in their operations.\n- Escalating violence increases labor mobility, leading to higher job separations, particularly among women seeking safer employment.\n- While increasing crime in the form of homicides may not induce large changes in the aggregate level of employment, there is evidence of labor reallocation across and within sectors.\n- The observed dynamics suggest an increase in labor market misallocation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology and data",
      "content": "- Estimation approach: individual-fixed effect estimation.\n- Data sources: detailed survey data (as described in the paper)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Gender dynamics and mechanisms",
      "content": "- Men: higher probability of exiting the labor market driven by reduced labor demand, partly due to male employment in drug trafficking organizations.\n- Women: higher labor force entry, concentrated in the informal sector, acting as a compensatory response to men's labor market exits.\n- Job separations: increased overall, with particularly pronounced separations among women seeking safer employment."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Labor mobility and allocation effects",
      "content": "- Escalating homicide rates lead to increased labor mobility.\n- Evidence points to labor reallocation across sectors and within sectors rather than large aggregate employment declines.\n- Consequence: increased labor market misallocation."
    },
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      "content": "- Authors: Lorenzo Aldeco Leo, Matteo Ghilardi, Hugo Tuesta\n- Date: May 23, 2025\n- Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2025/100\n- Volume: 2025\n- Issue: 100\n- Pages: 23\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009027.001\n- ISBN: 9798229009027\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Subjects: Crime, Employment, Labor, Labor force participation, Labor markets, Labor supply\n- Keywords: Crime, Employment, evidence from Mexico, Gender, homicide rate, homicides increase, job separation, Labor force participation, labor market consequence, labor market effect, Labor Markets, Labor supply, Mexico\n\nIMF Working Paper — Labor Market Consequences of Homicides: Evidence from Mexico\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/05/23/labor-market-consequences-of-homicides-evidence-from-mexico-566288"
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    "Authors: Lorenzo Aldeco Leo, Matteo Ghilardi, Hugo Tuesta",
    "Published: May 23, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009027.001",
    "Using detailed survey data and an individual-fixed effect estimation, the analysis reveals distinct gender dynamics in response to rising homicide rates.",
    "Men are more likely to exit the labor market due to reduced demand for their labor.",
    "Women increasingly join the workforce, mainly in the informal sector, to offset the decline in male labor supply.",
    "The gendered outcome is largely driven by the presence of drug trafficking organizations, which primarily employ men in their operations.",
    "Escalating violence increases labor mobility, leading to higher job separations, particularly among women seeking safer employment.",
    "While increasing crime in the form of homicides may not induce large changes in the aggregate level of employment, there is evidence of labor reallocation across and within sectors.",
    "The observed dynamics suggest an increase in labor market misallocation.",
    "Estimation approach: individual-fixed effect estimation.",
    "Data sources: detailed survey data (as described in the paper).",
    "Men: higher probability of exiting the labor market driven by reduced labor demand, partly due to male employment in drug trafficking organizations.",
    "Women: higher labor force entry, concentrated in the informal sector, acting as a compensatory response to men's labor market exits.",
    "Job separations: increased overall, with particularly pronounced separations among women seeking safer employment.",
    "Escalating homicide rates lead to increased labor mobility.",
    "Evidence points to labor reallocation across sectors and within sectors rather than large aggregate employment declines.",
    "Consequence: increased labor market misallocation.",
    "Authors: Lorenzo Aldeco Leo, Matteo Ghilardi, Hugo Tuesta",
    "Date: May 23, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2025/100",
    "Volume: 2025",
    "Issue: 100",
    "Pages: 23",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229009027.001",
    "ISBN: 9798229009027",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subjects: Crime, Employment, Labor, Labor force participation, Labor markets, Labor supply",
    "Keywords: Crime, Employment, evidence from Mexico, Gender, homicide rate, homicides increase, job separation, Labor force participation, labor market consequence, labor market effect, Labor Markets, Labor supply, Mexico",
    "**Working Paper**"
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