{
  "title": "A Quarterly Projection Model for Tonga",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, June 20, 2025",
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  "summary": "This paper customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Model purpose and scope",
      "content": "- Customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.\n- Designed to produce quarterly projections and scenario analysis for Tonga."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Calibration and key features",
      "content": "- Calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as:\n  - the persistence of domestic output,\n  - core inflation and interest rates,\n  - Tonga’s monetary policy transmission."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Scenarios analyzed",
      "content": "- The model is used to study three scenarios and assess their impact on the baseline:\n  - Scenario 1: shocks proxying for a bank failure.\n  - Scenario 2: shocks that simulate the consequences of a natural disaster.\n  - Scenario 3: shocks that represent a significant negative external shock on Tonga.\n- Rationale for scenario selection:\n  - Reflect the sensitivity of Tonga to adverse financial shocks,\n  - Reflect sensitivity to their trading partners’ macroeconomic policies,\n  - Reflect sensitivity to extreme weather events."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject areas and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Distressed institutions, Environment, Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Natural disasters, Output gap, Prices, Production\n- Keywords: Distressed institutions, Exchange rates, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Global, Inflation, Monetary Policy, monetary policy transmission, Natural disasters, negative external shock, Output gap, policy analysis, Quarterly Projection Model, scenario analysis, sensitivity of Tonga, Transmission Mechanism\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/06/20/a-quarterly-projection-model-for-tonga-567845"
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    "Authors: Sam Ouliaris, Celine Rochon, Daniel Taumoepeau",
    "Published: June 20, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229013390.001",
    "Customizes to the Tongan economy a macroeconomic model for medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables (QPM): output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.",
    "Designed to produce quarterly projections and scenario analysis for Tonga.",
    "Calibrated to embody the specific attributes of the Tongan economy such as:",
    "The model is used to study three scenarios and assess their impact on the baseline:",
    "Rationale for scenario selection:",
    "Subject: Distressed institutions, Environment, Exchange rates, Financial institutions, Foreign exchange, Inflation, Natural disasters, Output gap, Prices, Production",
    "Keywords: Distressed institutions, Exchange rates, Forecasting and Policy Analysis, Global, Inflation, Monetary Policy, monetary policy transmission, Natural disasters, negative external shock, Output gap, policy analysis, Quarterly Projection Model, scenario analysis, sensitivity of Tonga, Transmission Mechanism",
    "**Working Paper**"
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