## Building Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Persistent Temperature Changes: The Case of Peru

_IMF Working Papers, July 25, 2025_

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**Canonical URL:** [Building Macroeconomic Resilience to Natural Disasters and Persistent Temperature Changes: The Case of Peru](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/07/25/building-macroeconomic-resilience-to-natural-disasters-and-persistent-temperature-changes-568891)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Zamid Aligishiev, Daria Kolpakova
- Published: July 25, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229017879.001

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### Exposure and risks
- Peru is highly exposed to periodic El Niño Costero events that impair production in the fishing, agriculture, and construction sectors and inflict sizeable damages to physical assets.
- Rising average temperatures are expected to diminish productivity in agriculture, fisheries, and energy.
- Without efforts to strengthen adaptive capacity, Peru remains highly vulnerable to acute (periodic) and chronic (persistent temperature) physical risks in the long term.

### Methodology
- Combines a Markov-switching DSGE model with empirical estimates of losses from acute and chronic physical risks to conduct a scenario analysis of macro-fiscal implications.

### Key quantitative findings
- Cumulative income losses could reach up to 18.6 percent by 2050 and 50.6 percent by 2100.
- Scaling up investments in structural resilience and adaptation can partially mitigate these losses—raising output by up to 12.3 percent by 2050 and 31 percent by 2100.
- Investments in resilience also generate long-term fiscal savings (quantitative magnitudes are presented in the paper’s scenario analysis).

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Scale up investments in structural resilience and adaptation to reduce output losses from El Niño Costero events and rising temperatures.
- Strengthen adaptive capacity across sectors most affected: fishing, agriculture, construction, and energy.
- Use scenario-based macro-fiscal analysis to inform prioritization of resilience investments that both raise output and yield long-term fiscal savings.

### Publication metadata (excerpt)
- Authors: Zamid Aligishiev, Daria Kolpakova
- Date: July 25, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Paper No. 2025/144
- Pages: 35
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229017879.001

*IMF Working Paper No. 2025/144*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/07/25/building-macroeconomic-resilience-to-natural-disasters-and-persistent-temperature-changes-568891_