{
  "title": "Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, August 8, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/08/08/potential-growth-and-productivity-in-the-caribbean-568394",
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  "summary": "Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years. We examine these trends by providing new estimates of potential GDP growth for the region.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary findings",
      "content": "- Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years.\n- New estimates of potential GDP growth for the region show a broad-based decline over time.\n- Declines are driven by falling contributions from human capital and total factor productivity.\n- There is significant scope for aggregate productivity gains through:\n  - Efficient reallocation of resources between firms.\n  - Removal of firm-level structural obstacles.\n- Addressing constraints such as the cost and access to finance, workforce education, tax administration, and business licensing and permits is associated with higher aggregate welfare."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Drivers of the decline in potential growth",
      "content": "- Human capital:\n  - Declining contribution to potential GDP growth identified as a central factor.\n- Total factor productivity:\n  - Declining contribution to potential GDP growth identified as a central factor.\n- Aggregate pattern:\n  - The decline is broad-based across the Caribbean region."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Firm-level analysis and policy implications",
      "content": "- Firm-level data linkage:\n  - Analysis connects declining human capital and total factor productivity to firm-level dynamics.\n- Potential policy levers to raise aggregate productivity and welfare:\n  - Improve cost and access to finance for firms.\n  - Enhance workforce education.\n  - Strengthen tax administration and tax administration core functions.\n  - Streamline business licensing and permits to remove firm-level structural obstacles.\n- Expected outcomes:\n  - Efficient resource reallocation between firms and removal of obstacles are associated with higher aggregate welfare."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key publication and metadata",
      "content": "- Title: Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean\n- Authors: Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kiliç Çelik, Masahiro Nishida\n- Date: August 8, 2025\n- Series: IMF Working Papers\n- Working Paper No.: 2025/157\n- Issue: 157\n- Volume: 2025\n- Pages: 48\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229016650.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2025157\n- ISBN: 9798229016650\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Subjects: Human capital, Labor, Production, Productivity, Revenue administration, Tax administration core functions, Total factor productivity\n- Keywords: Allocative Efficiency, Caribbean, Firm-level Analysis, growth accounting exercise, Human capital, IMF working paper 2025/157, Medium-term growth prospect, potential GDP growth, Potential Growth, Productivity, productivity in the Caribbean, Tax administration core functions, Total factor productivity\n\nIMF Working Paper No. 2025/157\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/08/08/potential-growth-and-productivity-in-the-caribbean-568394"
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    "Authors: Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kiliç Çelik, Masahiro Nishida",
    "Published: August 8, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229016650.001",
    "Medium-term growth prospects of Caribbean countries have weakened in recent years.",
    "New estimates of potential GDP growth for the region show a broad-based decline over time.",
    "Declines are driven by falling contributions from human capital and total factor productivity.",
    "There is significant scope for aggregate productivity gains through:",
    "Addressing constraints such as the cost and access to finance, workforce education, tax administration, and business licensing and permits is associated with higher aggregate welfare.",
    "Human capital:",
    "Total factor productivity:",
    "Aggregate pattern:",
    "Firm-level data linkage:",
    "Potential policy levers to raise aggregate productivity and welfare:",
    "Expected outcomes:",
    "Title: Potential Growth and Productivity in the Caribbean",
    "Authors: Alexander Amundsen, Sophia Chen, Pierre Guérin, Sinem Kiliç Çelik, Masahiro Nishida",
    "Date: August 8, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "Working Paper No.: 2025/157",
    "Issue: 157",
    "Volume: 2025",
    "Pages: 48",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229016650.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2025157",
    "ISBN: 9798229016650",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Subjects: Human capital, Labor, Production, Productivity, Revenue administration, Tax administration core functions, Total factor productivity",
    "Keywords: Allocative Efficiency, Caribbean, Firm-level Analysis, growth accounting exercise, Human capital, IMF working paper 2025/157, Medium-term growth prospect, potential GDP growth, Potential Growth, Productivity, productivity in the Caribbean, Tax administration core functions, Total factor productivity",
    "**Working Paper**"
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