## A Python Package to Assist Macroframework Forecasting: Concepts and Examples

_IMF Working Papers, August 29, 2025_

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Sakai Ando, Shuvam Das, Sultan Orazbayev
- Published: August 29, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229023535.001

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### Summary
- Purpose: Introduces a Python package, macroframe-forecast, that allows users to generate forecasts that are both smooth over time and consistent with user-specified constraints.
- Motivation: Statistical models for economic time series often need to be complemented with a process to impose various constraints in a smooth manner. Systematically imposing constraints and retaining smoothness are important but challenging.
- Contribution: Addresses a gap by providing a user-friendly implementation of the systematic approach proposed by Ando (2024).
- Demonstrations: Two examples illustrating the package’s functionality for forecasting US GDP and fiscal variables.

### Package features and methodological approach
- Core capability: Generate forecasts that are smooth over time while enforcing user-specified constraints.
- Implementation objective: Translate the systematic approach of Ando (2024) into a user-friendly Python package named macroframe-forecast.
- Use cases demonstrated in the paper: Forecasting US GDP and forecasting fiscal variables (examples provided in the paper).

### Key findings and takeaways
- The package enables systematic imposition of constraints without sacrificing smoothness in forecasts.
- A user-friendly software tool fills an implementation gap for the methodology proposed in the literature (Ando (2024)).
- Demonstrated applicability to macroeconomic aggregates (US GDP) and fiscal forecasting (fiscal variables).

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Economic forecasting, Expenditure, External debt, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Income inequality, Interest payments, National accounts
- Keywords: Fiscal stance, Forecast Reconciliation, Income inequality, Interest payments, macrof rame, Macroframework, package's functionality, Python Package, smoothness matrix O.The problem, user-friendly package

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/08/29/a-python-package-to-assist-macroframework-forecasting-concepts-and-examples-570041_