## Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges

_IMF Working Papers, September 5, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Afghan Exodus: Regional Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Challenges](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/09/05/afghan-exodus-regional-macroeconomic-implications-and-policy-challenges-567616)

## Other formats

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk V Muir, Pedro C Rodriguez, Li Zeng
- Published: September 5, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229011921.001

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### Overview
- Authors: Rhea Gupta, Chandana Kularatne, Dirk V Muir, Pedro C Rodriguez, Li Zeng
- Publication date: September 5, 2025
- Type: IMF Working Paper (Working Paper No. 2025/176)
- Pages: 41
- Core focus: Documents stylized facts of Afghan displacement and emigration; assesses macroeconomic impacts from a regional perspective using the IMF’s FSGM model; considers policies to address the crisis.
- Geographic focus: Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan
- Subject keywords: Employment, Labor, Labor markets, Migrant labor, Migration, Population and demographics; keywords include Afghan refugee, internally displaced persons, Afghanistan reform, Iran, Pakistan, policy challenge, policy index, refugees.

### Key stylized facts and findings
- Afghanistan has endured decades of war and political turmoil, producing repeated waves of displacement (refugees and internally displaced persons) and emigration.
- The paper documents key stylized facts of the Afghan displacement and emigration crisis from a regional perspective.
- Macroeconomic impacts are quantified using the IMF’s FSGM model (Financial Sector and Growth Model).

### Macroeconomic assessment (modeling and scope)
- Analytical tool: IMF’s FSGM model.
- Regional perspective: The analysis explicitly considers spillovers and feedbacks between Afghanistan and host countries, notably Iran and Pakistan.
- Central analytical goal: Assess macroeconomic impacts of displacement and emigration on regional economies and policy trade-offs.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Emphasizes the need for a holistic and coordinated approach to achieve a durable solution to the displacement and emigration crisis.
- International support is identified as a critical catalyst for effective responses.
- Well-designed reforms in both Afghanistan and host countries (Iran and Pakistan) could yield a win-win outcome.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
  - [Working Paper (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025176-source-pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/09/05/afghan-exodus-regional-macroeconomic-implications-and-policy-challenges-567616_