{
  "title": "Measuring Global Trade Policy Activity",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, October 24, 2025",
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  "summary": "This paper introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis.\n- TPA Index is designed to monitor global trade policy developments in real time and contributes to the trade policy measurement literature.\n- Authors: Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska, Yuting Wei.\n- Publication date: October 24, 2025.\n- Format length: Pages: 39."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Uses a Dynamic Factor Model applied to comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories.\n- Employs MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions with high-frequency data to develop nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity.\n- Analytical focus includes factor models and econometric analysis to capture both structural and cyclical components of trade policy measures."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Documents a structural shift around 2019 with a substantial expansion in the use of trade policies.\n- Identifies cyclical episodes of heightened trade policy activity.\n- Reveals interconnections between different types of trade policy measures.\n- Identifies systematic differences in trade policy deployment among groups of economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Nowcasting and real-time monitoring",
      "content": "- MIDAS regressions enable nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity.\n- Nowcasting aims at real-time identification of potential policy shifts using high-frequency indicators."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subject coverage and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: COVID-19, Econometric analysis, Economic forecasting, Exports, Factor models, Health, International trade, Tariffs, Taxes, Trade policy, Trade tensions.\n- Keywords: COVID-19, Dynamic Factor Models, Exports, Factor models, Global, IMF working papers, Nowcasting, private sector job creation, Tariffs, TPA index, Trade Policy, trade policy development, Trade tensions, trade-policy activity, views of the IMF.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/10/27/measuring-global-trade-policy-activity-571332"
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    "Authors: Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska, Yuting Wei",
    "Published: October 24, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229028356.001",
    "Introduces the Trade Policy Activity (TPA) Index, a novel indicator measuring evolving global trade policy dynamics since the Global Financial Crisis.",
    "TPA Index is designed to monitor global trade policy developments in real time and contributes to the trade policy measurement literature.",
    "Authors: Samuele Centorrino, Antonia Diakantoni, Alexander Keck, Michele Ruta, Monika Sztajerowska, Yuting Wei.",
    "Publication date: October 24, 2025.",
    "Format length: Pages: 39.",
    "Uses a Dynamic Factor Model applied to comprehensive trade policy data covering 197 countries and territories.",
    "Employs MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions with high-frequency data to develop nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity.",
    "Analytical focus includes factor models and econometric analysis to capture both structural and cyclical components of trade policy measures.",
    "Documents a structural shift around 2019 with a substantial expansion in the use of trade policies.",
    "Identifies cyclical episodes of heightened trade policy activity.",
    "Reveals interconnections between different types of trade policy measures.",
    "Identifies systematic differences in trade policy deployment among groups of economies.",
    "MIDAS regressions enable nowcasting capabilities for trade policy activity.",
    "Nowcasting aims at real-time identification of potential policy shifts using high-frequency indicators.",
    "Subject: COVID-19, Econometric analysis, Economic forecasting, Exports, Factor models, Health, International trade, Tariffs, Taxes, Trade policy, Trade tensions.",
    "Keywords: COVID-19, Dynamic Factor Models, Exports, Factor models, Global, IMF working papers, Nowcasting, private sector job creation, Tariffs, TPA index, Trade Policy, trade policy development, Trade tensions, trade-policy activity, views of the IMF.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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