## Labor Markets, Migration, and EU Integration in the Western Balkans

_IMF Working Papers, October 31, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Labor Markets, Migration, and EU Integration in the Western Balkans](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/10/31/labor-markets-migration-and-eu-integration-in-the-western-balkans-571329)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/10/31/labor-markets-migration-and-eu-integration-in-the-western-balkans-571329/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/10/31/labor-markets-migration-and-eu-integration-in-the-western-balkans-571329/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/10/31/labor-markets-migration-and-eu-integration-in-the-western-balkans-571329/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Stephen Ayerst, Nina Chebotareva, Oksana Dynnikova, Amanda Edwards, Charles Zhang
- Published: October 31, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229029056.001

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### Study objective and framework
- Develops a structural model of interconnected European labor markets to examine how further EU integration would impact the Western Balkan economies and how policy can improve output and employment in these countries.
- Model explicitly links migration responses to labor market outcomes across interconnected European economies.

### Key findings from model simulations
- Productivity increases of 30 percent, similar to previous EU accession cases, would:
  - result in wage growth;
  - help close the unemployment gap;
  - offset increased emigration through higher immigration and labor participation.
- Risks of increased emigration from further integration can be managed through promoting faster productivity growth, including through structural reforms.

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Promote faster productivity growth (including through structural reforms) to manage emigration risks and to support wages and employment.
- Improve the efficiency of the labor market across three dimensions to boost employment and support output:
  - participation;
  - job search;
  - production.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
  - [Working Paper (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025226-source-pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Working Paper (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025226-source-pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/10/31/labor-markets-migration-and-eu-integration-in-the-western-balkans-571329_