## Agricultural Distortions and International Migration

_IMF Working Papers, November 7, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Agricultural Distortions and International Migration](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/11/07/agricultural-distortions-and-international-migration-571682)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/11/07/agricultural-distortions-and-international-migration-571682/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/11/07/agricultural-distortions-and-international-migration-571682/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/11/07/agricultural-distortions-and-international-migration-571682/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Braulio Britos, Manuel A. Hernandez, Danilo Trupkin
- Published: November 7, 2025
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229026314.001

---

### Summary and research question
- International migration has grown rapidly over the past two decades.
- The paper examines the role of agricultural distortions in shaping emigration patterns and influencing productivity and welfare in developing countries, using Guatemala as a case study.
- Research approach: develop a theoretical framework where household members can work in agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate, and calibrate the model combining detailed micro and aggregate data.

### Theoretical framework and methodology
- Household decision framework allowing three options for members: agriculture, non-agriculture, or emigrate.
- Calibration combines detailed micro and aggregate data (Guatemala as case study).
- Model identifies two key channels linking agricultural distortions to migration and productivity.

### Key channels identified
- Channel 1: Distortions increase emigration among more productive agents, reducing aggregate productivity.
- Channel 2: Distortions drive factor misallocation, lowering incomes and increasing overall emigration.

### Main quantitative findings
- Reducing distortions in the agricultural sector to the most efficient department in each region would:
  - Lower the emigrant share by 2.3 percentage points, primarily among more productive workers.
  - Boost aggregate agricultural productivity by 30.1%.
  - Raise welfare by 3.4%.

### Sub-national analysis
- High-distortion areas are more isolated.
- High-distortion areas exhibit less financial penetration and less government presence.

### Subject tags and keywords (as presented)
- Subjects: Agricultural sector, Economic sectors, Migration, Population and demographics, Production, Productivity, Total factor productivity
- Keywords: aggregate productivity, Agricultural distortions, Agricultural sector, Caribbean, Central America, Emigration, emigration pattern, IMF working papers, Labor mobility, Migration, migration share, Productivity, productivity channel, South America, Total factor productivity, Welfare

*IMF Working Paper — "Agricultural Distortions and International Migration", Braulio Britos, Manuel A. Hernandez, and Danilo Trupkin, November 7, 2025.*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
  - [Working Paper (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025233-source-pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Working Paper (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2025/english/wpiea2025233-source-pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/11/07/agricultural-distortions-and-international-migration-571682_