{
  "title": "Cutting Emissions, Securing Energy: A Macroeconomic Assessment for COP30",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, November 21, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/11/21/cutting-emissions-securing-energy-a-macroeconomic-assessment-for-cop30-572001",
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  "summary": "Climate change poses significant macroeconomic challenges due to its impacts and the energy transition needed to address it. Despite the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global warming ‘well below 2°C’, and ideally to 1.5°C, the world is not on track. Temperatures are likely to pass 1.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary findings",
      "content": "- Climate change poses significant macroeconomic challenges through direct climate impacts and the energy transition required to address them.\n- The world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming “well below 2°C”, and ideally to 1.5°C:\n  - Temperatures are likely to pass 1.5°C this decade.\n  - Temperatures would exceed 2°C by 2050, even if national targets are met.\n- Current national emissions targets aim for a 7 percent cut compared to the 30 to 45 percent needed by 2035.\n- Limiting the “overshoot” in peak temperatures by cutting global emissions of greenhouse gases would reduce climate risks.\n- Achieving emissions targets implies drastic changes in the energy system and requires ensuring security of energy supply for macroeconomic stability and growth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Modeling approach and options",
      "content": "- The paper uses in-house models to:\n  - Illustrate options for closing emissions gaps.\n  - Assess impacts of aligning emissions with temperature goals.\n  - Explore strategies to minimize climate risks while pursuing mitigation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Emissions gaps and temperature goals",
      "content": "- National targets shortfall:\n  - Stated ambition: 7 percent cut (no further qualifiers in source).\n  - Needed to meet temperature-consistent pathways: 30 to 45 percent by 2035.\n- Temperature trajectory based on current policy and targets:\n  - 1.5°C likely to be passed this decade.\n  - 2°C by 2050 even if national targets are met."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Energy system implications and energy security",
      "content": "- Closing the emissions gap requires drastic changes in the energy system (phraseology preserved).\n- Ensuring security of energy supply is critical for:\n  - Macroeconomic stability.\n  - Economic growth.\n- Policy design must balance rapid mitigation with energy supply reliability and grid stability (terms preserved from subject keywords)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Macroeconomic policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- Effective macroeconomic policies are necessary to:\n  - Manage the transition in ways that preserve growth and stability.\n  - Support energy security while implementing mitigation measures.\n- The analysis highlights trade-offs between ambition, costs, and energy-system transformations (analysis phrasing preserved).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/11/21/cutting-emissions-securing-energy-a-macroeconomic-assessment-for-cop30-572001"
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    "Authors: Simon Black, Dora Benedek, Ian W.H. Parry, Nate Vernon-Lin, Sunalika Singh",
    "Published: November 21, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229031455.001",
    "Climate change poses significant macroeconomic challenges through direct climate impacts and the energy transition required to address them.",
    "The world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming “well below 2°C”, and ideally to 1.5°C:",
    "Current national emissions targets aim for a 7 percent cut compared to the 30 to 45 percent needed by 2035.",
    "Limiting the “overshoot” in peak temperatures by cutting global emissions of greenhouse gases would reduce climate risks.",
    "Achieving emissions targets implies drastic changes in the energy system and requires ensuring security of energy supply for macroeconomic stability and growth.",
    "The paper uses in-house models to:",
    "National targets shortfall:",
    "Temperature trajectory based on current policy and targets:",
    "Closing the emissions gap requires drastic changes in the energy system (phraseology preserved).",
    "Ensuring security of energy supply is critical for:",
    "Policy design must balance rapid mitigation with energy supply reliability and grid stability (terms preserved from subject keywords).",
    "Effective macroeconomic policies are necessary to:",
    "The analysis highlights trade-offs between ambition, costs, and energy-system transformations (analysis phrasing preserved).",
    "**Working Paper**"
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