{
  "title": "Unlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, December 19, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/12/20/unlocking-mena-and-cca-trade-in-a-fragmented-world-572720",
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  "summary": "This paper investigates the impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on trade flows in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Topic: Impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on trade flows in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions.\n- Context: Ongoing conflicts, security threats, a spike in global economic uncertainty, and evolving consumer sentiments create intricate challenges requiring agile policy responses.\n- Authors: Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem M Nechi, Subi Suvetha Velkumar.\n- Date: December 19, 2025.\n- Publication type: IMF Working Papers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Illustrative scenarios analyzed",
      "content": "- Targeted trade restrictions.\n- Trade diversion.\n- Neutral stances on exports and economic output."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings from the illustrative scenarios",
      "content": "- The scenarios demonstrate material effects on exports and economic output across CCA and MENA under different manifestations of geoeconomic fragmentation.\n- The analysis highlights the critical importance of:\n  - Reducing trade barriers.\n  - Enhancing infrastructure.\n  - Improving regulatory environments.\n- These measures are presented as essential for fostering resilience and promoting sustainable growth in the affected regions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations and implications",
      "content": "- Prioritize removal or reduction of trade barriers to mitigate negative trade impacts from geoeconomic fragmentation.\n- Invest in infrastructure to improve connectivity and reduce costs associated with trade diversion and fragmentation.\n- Reform and strengthen regulatory environments to enhance trade facilitation and adaptability to shifting global trade patterns.\n- Emphasize agile policy responses to address evolving security threats, economic uncertainty, and changing consumer sentiments."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subjects: Exports, International trade, Trade balance, Trade barriers, Trade policy.\n- Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA), Cca economy, Cca trade, Central Asia, Exports, Geoeconomic Fragmentation, Geopolitical Uncertainties, Global, IMF working papers, Infrastructure Investment Regulatory Constraints, Middle East, Middle East and North Africa(MENA), North Africa, Trade balance, Trade Barriers, Trade DiversionTrade Policy, Trade pattern, Trade policy, Trade potential."
    },
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      "heading": "Publication metadata (as provided)",
      "content": "- Pages: 25\n- Volume: 2025\n- Issue: 267\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2025/267\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229034463.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2025267\n- ISBN: 9798229034463\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n\nUnlocking MENA and CCA Trade in a Fragmented World, IMF Working Papers (2025).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/12/20/unlocking-mena-and-cca-trade-in-a-fragmented-world-572720"
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    "Authors: Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem M Nechi, Subi Suvetha Velkumar",
    "Published: December 19, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229034463.001",
    "Topic: Impact of geoeconomic fragmentation on trade flows in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions.",
    "Context: Ongoing conflicts, security threats, a spike in global economic uncertainty, and evolving consumer sentiments create intricate challenges requiring agile policy responses.",
    "Authors: Apostolos Apostolou, Fillipo Gori, Thomas Kroen, Salem M Nechi, Subi Suvetha Velkumar.",
    "Date: December 19, 2025.",
    "Publication type: IMF Working Papers.",
    "Targeted trade restrictions.",
    "Trade diversion.",
    "Neutral stances on exports and economic output.",
    "The scenarios demonstrate material effects on exports and economic output across CCA and MENA under different manifestations of geoeconomic fragmentation.",
    "The analysis highlights the critical importance of:",
    "These measures are presented as essential for fostering resilience and promoting sustainable growth in the affected regions.",
    "Prioritize removal or reduction of trade barriers to mitigate negative trade impacts from geoeconomic fragmentation.",
    "Invest in infrastructure to improve connectivity and reduce costs associated with trade diversion and fragmentation.",
    "Reform and strengthen regulatory environments to enhance trade facilitation and adaptability to shifting global trade patterns.",
    "Emphasize agile policy responses to address evolving security threats, economic uncertainty, and changing consumer sentiments.",
    "Subjects: Exports, International trade, Trade balance, Trade barriers, Trade policy.",
    "Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA), Cca economy, Cca trade, Central Asia, Exports, Geoeconomic Fragmentation, Geopolitical Uncertainties, Global, IMF working papers, Infrastructure Investment Regulatory Constraints, Middle East, Middle East and North Africa(MENA), North Africa, Trade balance, Trade Barriers, Trade DiversionTrade Policy, Trade pattern, Trade policy, Trade potential.",
    "Pages: 25",
    "Volume: 2025",
    "Issue: 267",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2025/267",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229034463.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2025267",
    "ISBN: 9798229034463",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "**Working Paper**"
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