{
  "title": "Market Access and High Spread Issuances",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, January 16, 2026",
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  "summary": "We investigate the factors determining emerging markets’ likelihood to access international capital markets. First, we develop a simple model to outline the theoretical foundations of market access, highlighting the role of risk, spreads, net worth, and the cost of repaying debt.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Study investigates factors determining emerging markets’ likelihood to access international capital markets.\n- Approach:\n  - Develop a simple theoretical model outlining market access foundations: role of risk, spreads, net worth, and cost of repaying debt.\n  - Estimate a random forest model to assess key predictors of market access.\n  - Collect a novel dataset and examine characteristics of high spread issuances.\n- Key conceptual finding: trade-off between risk insurance and moral hazard; relevance of unconventional instruments such as guarantees and macro-contingent debt."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Theoretical model: mechanisms and implications",
      "content": "- Highlights the role of:\n  - risk,\n  - spreads,\n  - net worth,\n  - cost of repaying debt.\n- Demonstrates a trade-off between:\n  - risk insurance, and\n  - moral hazard.\n- Underscores the relevance of unconventional instruments:\n  - guarantees,\n  - macro-contingent debt."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Empirical approach and key predictors",
      "content": "- Methodology:\n  - Random forest model used to assess predictors of market access.\n- Key predictors identified:\n  - outstanding obligations,\n  - reserves,\n  - short-term external debt,\n  - EMBIG spreads,\n  - size of the economy."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Non-linear effects and interactions",
      "content": "- Important non-linear effects documented:\n  - An inverted U-curve for the effect of spreads on likelihood of issuance.\n  - A positive relationship between likelihood of issuance and external debt at low spreads that turns negative at high spreads.\n  - High sensitivity to governance only for high spreads."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Characteristics of high-spread issuances",
      "content": "- High spread issuances are often unconventional and include:\n  - guarantees,\n  - contingencies,\n  - collateral.\n- These empirical characteristics align with theoretical predictions.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/01/16/market-access-and-high-spread-issuances-573294"
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    "Authors: Raphael A Espinoza, Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Luis Carlos Ibanez-Thomae, Flora Lutz",
    "Published: January 16, 2026",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229037259.001",
    "Study investigates factors determining emerging markets’ likelihood to access international capital markets.",
    "Approach:",
    "Key conceptual finding: trade-off between risk insurance and moral hazard; relevance of unconventional instruments such as guarantees and macro-contingent debt.",
    "Highlights the role of:",
    "Demonstrates a trade-off between:",
    "Underscores the relevance of unconventional instruments:",
    "Methodology:",
    "Key predictors identified:",
    "Important non-linear effects documented:",
    "High spread issuances are often unconventional and include:",
    "These empirical characteristics align with theoretical predictions.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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