## Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)

_IMF Working Papers, February 13, 2026_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/13/algeria-macroeconomic-projection-model-ampm-573954)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/13/algeria-macroeconomic-projection-model-ampm-573954/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/13/algeria-macroeconomic-projection-model-ampm-573954/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/13/algeria-macroeconomic-projection-model-ampm-573954/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Mustapha Abderrahim, Riad Mansouri, Fatma Zohra Ouail, Sara Abadi, Kenza Elkrim, Mohamed-Fariz Zidane, Philippe D Karam, Gyorgy Molnar, Karel Musil, Valeriu Nalban
- Published: February 13, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229038379.001

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### Model description
- QMPM is the Quarterly Projection Model developed for the Bank of Algeria and underpins the Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System.
- The model is designed to capture the economy’s key features, enabling model-based analytical exercises for policy analysis, forecasts, and risk scenarios.

### Key features captured by the model
- Importance of the hydrocarbon sector.
- Sizable fiscal policy impacts.
- Monetary-fiscal interactions.
- A monetary aggregate targeting policy framework.
- A managed exchange rate regime.

### Analytical findings and model performance
- AMPM displays theoretical consistency.
- AMPM shows a robust data fit.
- Model-based analytical exercises confirm AMPM’s practicality for:
  - Real-time policy analysis.
  - Forecasting.
  - Risk scenario analysis to support the Bank of Algeria’s policy processes.

### Policy relevance and applications
- Supports the Bank of Algeria’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System.
- Suited for analyzing interactions between fiscal policy, monetary policy, and exchange rate management in an economy with a dominant hydrocarbon sector.
- Practical tool for conducting real-time assessments and scenario-based policy deliberations.

*Source: IMF Working Paper "Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)", February 13, 2026.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
  - [Working Paper (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026025-source-pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Working Paper (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026025-source-pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/13/algeria-macroeconomic-projection-model-ampm-573954_