{
  "title": "Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, February 20, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/index.md",
  "summary": "This paper develops a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya. Nowcasting combines official monthly indicators with digital transaction data.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Title: Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya\n- Authors: Nikolay Danov, Domenico Giannone, Alain N. Kabundi, Cedric I Okou, Antonio Spilimbergo\n- Publication date: February 20, 2026\n- Aim: Develop a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya by combining official monthly indicators with digital transaction data."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Methodology",
      "content": "- Modeling approach:\n  - Uses dynamic factor models exploiting strong comovement of macroeconomic time series.\n  - Summarizes aggregate dynamics with a few latent factors to enhance forecasts.\n- Data inputs:\n  - Official monthly indicators.\n  - Digital transaction data.\n- Update procedure:\n  - Model is updated with each data release.\n  - Revisions are decomposed into predictable and news components."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key findings",
      "content": "- Performance:\n  - Results demonstrate robust performance of the nowcasting model in data-constrained environments.\n  - Nowcasting is shown to be applicable to low-income countries.\n- Practical implications:\n  - Combining traditional indicators with digital transaction data improves timeliness and accuracy of quarterly GDP growth estimates.\n  - Latent-factor summarization effectively captures aggregate dynamics in Kenyan macroeconomic time series."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Model updating and revisions",
      "content": "- Update frequency:\n  - The model is updated with each data release to refine nowcasts.\n- Revision analysis:\n  - Revisions to nowcasts are decomposed into:\n    - Predictable components.\n    - News components.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Nikolay Danov, Domenico Giannone, Alain N. Kabundi, Cedric I Okou, Antonio Spilimbergo",
    "Published: February 20, 2026",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229038584.001",
    "Title: Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya",
    "Authors: Nikolay Danov, Domenico Giannone, Alain N. Kabundi, Cedric I Okou, Antonio Spilimbergo",
    "Publication date: February 20, 2026",
    "Aim: Develop a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya by combining official monthly indicators with digital transaction data.",
    "Modeling approach:",
    "Data inputs:",
    "Update procedure:",
    "Performance:",
    "Practical implications:",
    "Update frequency:",
    "Revision analysis:",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026032-source-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026032-source-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026032-source-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T03:00:53.804Z"
}