## Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya

_IMF Working Papers, February 20, 2026_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Nikolay Danov, Domenico Giannone, Alain N. Kabundi, Cedric I Okou, Antonio Spilimbergo
- Published: February 20, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229038584.001

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### Overview
- Title: Nowcasting GDP Growth for Kenya
- Authors: Nikolay Danov, Domenico Giannone, Alain N. Kabundi, Cedric I Okou, Antonio Spilimbergo
- Publication date: February 20, 2026
- Aim: Develop a nowcasting model to produce timely estimates of quarterly GDP growth for Kenya by combining official monthly indicators with digital transaction data.

### Methodology
- Modeling approach:
  - Uses dynamic factor models exploiting strong comovement of macroeconomic time series.
  - Summarizes aggregate dynamics with a few latent factors to enhance forecasts.
- Data inputs:
  - Official monthly indicators.
  - Digital transaction data.
- Update procedure:
  - Model is updated with each data release.
  - Revisions are decomposed into predictable and news components.

### Key findings
- Performance:
  - Results demonstrate robust performance of the nowcasting model in data-constrained environments.
  - Nowcasting is shown to be applicable to low-income countries.
- Practical implications:
  - Combining traditional indicators with digital transaction data improves timeliness and accuracy of quarterly GDP growth estimates.
  - Latent-factor summarization effectively captures aggregate dynamics in Kenyan macroeconomic time series.

### Model updating and revisions
- Update frequency:
  - The model is updated with each data release to refine nowcasts.
- Revision analysis:
  - Revisions to nowcasts are decomposed into:
    - Predictable components.
    - News components.

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## Content in this bundle

- **Working Paper**
  - [Working Paper (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026032-source-pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Working Paper (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026032-source-pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/02/20/nowcasting-gdp-growth-for-kenya-574164_