{
  "title": "Explaining Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Debt Overhang Thresholds",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, March 20, 2026",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858/index.md",
  "summary": "This paper estimates debt overhang thresholds separately for 105 countries using a Kalman Filter approach applied to a standard growth model. The results reveal pronounced heterogeneity in the estimated thresholds, both within and across country groups but limited time-variation.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Study overview and methodology",
      "content": "- Estimates debt overhang thresholds separately for 105 countries.\n- Method: Kalman Filter approach applied to a standard growth model.\n- Pages: 43\n- Volume: 2026\n- Issue: 051\n- Series: Working Paper No. 2026/051\n- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229042413.001\n- Stock No: WPIEA2026051\n- ISBN: 9798229042413\n- ISSN: 1018-5941\n- Authors: Rina Bhattacharya, Alexei Goumilevski, Carlos E Guevara, Justin Lesniak, Flora Lutz\n- Date: March 20, 2026"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key empirical findings",
      "content": "- The estimated debt overhang thresholds exhibit pronounced heterogeneity:\n  - Heterogeneity is observed both within and across country groups.\n  - There is limited time-variation in the estimated thresholds.\n- Structural correlates associated with higher public debt overhang thresholds:\n  - A strong payment track record.\n  - High quality institutions and governance.\n  - Public debt composition, specifically currency, maturity, and creditor base.\n  - Financial market size and development."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords (as provided)",
      "content": "- Subjects: Debt burden, Economic sectors, External debt, Financial markets, Financial sector, Financial sector development, Public debt\n- Keywords: country group, Debt burden, Financial sector, Financial sector development, Global, IMF working papers, overhang threshold, public debt composition, threshold coefficient"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Research framing and purpose",
      "content": "- Primary objective: estimate country-specific debt overhang thresholds and explore structural factors underlying cross-country heterogeneity.\n- Two-step approach:\n  - Step 1: Estimate thresholds for 105 countries using Kalman Filter on a growth model.\n  - Step 2: Empirically explore structural determinants of heterogeneity in thresholds.\n\nIMF Working Papers — Explaining Cross-Country Heterogeneity in Debt Overhang Thresholds (Rina Bhattacharya et al., March 20, 2026).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: Rina Bhattacharya, Alexei Goumilevski, Carlos E Guevara, Justin Lesniak, Flora Lutz",
    "Published: March 20, 2026",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229042413.001",
    "Estimates debt overhang thresholds separately for 105 countries.",
    "Method: Kalman Filter approach applied to a standard growth model.",
    "Pages: 43",
    "Volume: 2026",
    "Issue: 051",
    "Series: Working Paper No. 2026/051",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229042413.001",
    "Stock No: WPIEA2026051",
    "ISBN: 9798229042413",
    "ISSN: 1018-5941",
    "Authors: Rina Bhattacharya, Alexei Goumilevski, Carlos E Guevara, Justin Lesniak, Flora Lutz",
    "Date: March 20, 2026",
    "The estimated debt overhang thresholds exhibit pronounced heterogeneity:",
    "Structural correlates associated with higher public debt overhang thresholds:",
    "Subjects: Debt burden, Economic sectors, External debt, Financial markets, Financial sector, Financial sector development, Public debt",
    "Keywords: country group, Debt burden, Financial sector, Financial sector development, Global, IMF working papers, overhang threshold, public debt composition, threshold coefficient",
    "Primary objective: estimate country-specific debt overhang thresholds and explore structural factors underlying cross-country heterogeneity.",
    "Two-step approach:",
    "**Working Paper**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Working Paper",
      "role": "paper",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026051-source-pdf.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026051-source-pdf.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2026/english/wpiea2026051-source-pdf.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/03/20/explaining-cross-country-heterogeneity-in-debt-overhang-thresholds-574858/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-17T03:07:57.826Z"
}