## Mind the Gaps: Caribbean Trade Patterns and the Connectivity Constraint

_IMF Working Papers, May 15, 2026_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Mind the Gaps: Caribbean Trade Patterns and the Connectivity Constraint](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/05/14/mind-the-gaps-caribbean-trade-patterns-and-the-connectivity-constraint-576030)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: JaeBin Ahn, Nalisa Marieatte, Philipp-Leo Mengel, David Moore, Josefine Quast, Qingyu Tao, Hou Wang
- Published: May 15, 2026
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229045285.001

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### Overview and scope
- Paper analyzes trade patterns across the Caribbean Community (CARICOM)—15 Caribbean countries.
- Methodological approach: unified empirical assessment using a consistent gravity-model framework to jointly analyze goods trade, tourism flows, and cross-border banking linkages.
- Data sources emphasized: granular bilateral trade, tourism, and flight capacity data.
- Publication details:
  - Authors: JaeBin Ahn, Nalisa Marieatte, Philipp-Leo Mengel, David Moore, Josefine Quast, Qingyu Tao, Hou Wang
  - Date: May 15, 2026
  - Pages: 46
  - Volume: 2026
  - Issue: 095
  - Series: Working Paper No. 2026/095
  - DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229045285.001
  - ISBN: 9798229045285
  - ISSN: 1018-5941

### Key findings
- Three main contributions:
  - Provides a unified empirical assessment of Caribbean external connectivity by jointly analyzing goods trade, tourism flows, and cross-border banking linkages within a consistent gravity-model framework.
  - Presents new evidence on the role of physical connectivity—shipping and air transport—in shaping both import source concentration and tourism inflows, drawing on granular bilateral trade, tourism, and flight capacity data.
  - Shows that, while financial connectivity matters in a global context, it is not the primary binding constraint for Caribbean economies; instead, limited physical connectivity emerges as the more decisive factor shaping trade patterns and external vulnerabilities.
- Comparative insight:
  - Financial connectivity has relevance globally, but for CARICOM economies the binding constraint is limited physical connectivity (shipping and air transport) affecting import concentration and tourism inflows.

### Thematic emphasis
- Physical connectivity:
  - Shipping and air transport are central determinants of import source concentration.
  - Flight capacity and transport linkages are linked to tourism inflows.
- Financial connectivity:
  - Cross-border banking linkages are analyzed but are not identified as the primary constraint for Caribbean external integration.
- Analytical framework:
  - Gravity-model framework enables joint assessment across goods trade, tourism, and banking linkages to isolate the roles of physical and financial connectivity.

### Subject areas and keywords
- Subject: Economic sectors, Exports, Imports, International trade, Tourism, Trade balance, Trade in goods
- Keywords include: banking linkages and trade finance, banking-trade nexus, Caribbean, CARICOM economy, Central America, concentration, economic integration, Exports, Global, goods trade, IMF working papers, Imports, International and interregional trade, shipping and air connectivity, South America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Tourism, Trade balance, Trade in goods, trade pattern, trade vulnerability and resilience, trade-finance linkage, transportation supply, travel demand

*Source: Mind the Gaps: Caribbean Trade Patterns and the Connectivity Constraint (IMF Working Paper No. 2026/095).*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/05/14/mind-the-gaps-caribbean-trade-patterns-and-the-connectivity-constraint-576030_