{
  "title": "Demand for Dollars: Evidence from Survey Expectations",
  "publication": "IMF Working Papers, September 4, 2026",
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  "summary": "We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- Study of the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations.\n- Empirical strategy leverages granular foreign exchange trading data.\n- Overall conclusion: long-horizon expectations predict dollar demand across spot, forward, and swap currency markets."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Main findings",
      "content": "- First: end-user investors increase their dollar purchases when they expect the US dollar to appreciate.\n- First (continued): Investment funds and non-dealer banks adjust their synthetic dollar borrowing in the FX swap market in response to forecasted changes in synthetic dollar funding costs.\n- Second: cross-sectionally, investors rebalance along the factor structure of currency risk into dollars following an expected dollar appreciation.\n- Third: the predictive power of survey forecasts weakens when forecaster disagreement or uncertainty rises."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data, scope, and instruments",
      "content": "- Uses survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations.\n- Leverages granular foreign exchange trading data.\n- Documents predictability of dollar demand across spot, forward, and swap currency markets.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Working Paper\n  - Working Paper (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Working Paper (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/09/04/demand-for-dollars-evidence-from-survey-expectations-579396"
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    "Authors: Benedikt Ballensiefen, Fabricius Somogyi, Hannah L Winterberg",
    "Published: September 4, 2026",
    "Series: IMF Working Papers",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229058872.001",
    "Study of the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations.",
    "Empirical strategy leverages granular foreign exchange trading data.",
    "Overall conclusion: long-horizon expectations predict dollar demand across spot, forward, and swap currency markets.",
    "First: end-user investors increase their dollar purchases when they expect the US dollar to appreciate.",
    "First (continued): Investment funds and non-dealer banks adjust their synthetic dollar borrowing in the FX swap market in response to forecasted changes in synthetic dollar funding costs.",
    "Second: cross-sectionally, investors rebalance along the factor structure of currency risk into dollars following an expected dollar appreciation.",
    "Third: the predictive power of survey forecasts weakens when forecaster disagreement or uncertainty rises.",
    "Uses survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations.",
    "Leverages granular foreign exchange trading data.",
    "Documents predictability of dollar demand across spot, forward, and swap currency markets.",
    "**Working Paper**"
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