## Raphael Andre Espinoza - CV

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Raphael Andre Espinoza

---

### Biography

Raphael Espinoza is Mission Chief for Uruguay, Deputy Division Chief in the IMF Western Hemisphere Department, and an external research associate at the University of Oxford. Previously, he was Deputy Division Chief in the Fiscal Policy Division of the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department. He has worked on a variety of IMF program and near-program countries as well as on research-oriented positions at the IMF and at the European Central Bank. He has also been Assistant Professor in Economics at University College London (UCL), where he was the Director of the Centre for Studies of Emerging Economies, and provided advisory services as a financial stability expert for the central banks of Peru and Colombia. He has published extensively on macroeconomics and economic development issues, including in two books (Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, OUP, 2021; The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf, OUP, 2013). He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Oxford.

### Profile

### Education

- PhD in Economics, University of Oxford, 2009

- Visiting PhD student, Yale University, 2007

- MSc. in Economics for Development, University of Oxford, 2004

- Ingenieur des Ponts et Chaussees (MSc. in Applied Mathematics), 2004

### Previous Experience

- Deputy Division Chief, Fiscal Policy and Surveillance Division, Fiscal Affairs Department

- Senior Economist, European Department, UK desk, IMF, 2018-2019

- Director, Centre for Comparative Studies of Emerging Economies, UCL, 2015-2016

- Assistant Professor in Economics, University College London (UCL), 2014-2016

- Senior Economist/Economist, Research Department, Systemic Issues Division, IMF, 2011-2018

- Economist, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, Strategy Unit for Low Income Countries, IMF, 2010-2011

- Economist, Middle East and Central Asia Department, Gulf Cooperation Council Division, IMF, 2008-2010

- Economist, International Environment Division, European Central Bank, 2007-2008

### Field of Expertise

- Development Economics

- Monetary Policy

- Macro-Financial Issues

- Open Economy Macroeconomics

### Books

- [Macroeconomic Policy in Fragile States, Oxford University Press, 2021, co-edited with Ralph Chami and Peter Montiel](https://academic.oup.com/book/39767?searchresult=1)

- [The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf, Oxford University Press, 2013, with G. Fayad and A. Prasad.](http://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-macroeconomics-of-the-arab-states-of-the-gulf-9780199683796?cc=us&lang=en&tab=overview)

### IMF Publications

### IMF Books and Working Papers

- [Market Access and High Spread Issuances](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2026/01/16/market-access-and-high-spread-issuances-573294), Working Paper No. 2026/010 , January 16, 2026

- [The Urgency of Conflict Prevention – A Macroeconomic Perspective](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/12/17/the-urgency-of-conflict-prevention-a-macroeconomic-perspective-559143), Working Paper No. 2024/256 , December 20, 2024

- [Violent Crime and Insecurity in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Macroeconomic Perspective](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/departmental-papers-policy-papers/issues/2024/11/11/violent-crime-and-insecurity-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean-a-macroeconomic-perspective-555570), Departmental Paper No 2024/009 , November 11, 2024

- [Financial Conditions in Europe: Dynamics, Drivers, and Macroeconomic Implications](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/09/29/financial-conditions-in-europe-dynamics-drivers-and-macroeconomic-implications-539653), Working Paper No. 2023/209 , September 29, 2023

- [The State as Financier of Last Resort](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2022/10/11/the-state-as-financier-of-last-resort-523706), Staff Discussion Notes No. 2022/003 , October 13, 2022

- [Effective Fiscal-Monetary Interactions in Severe Recessions](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/09/02/effective-fiscal-monetary-interactions-in-severe-recessions-522755), Working Paper No. 2022/170 , September 2, 2022

- [The Fiscal Multiplier of European Structural Investment Funds: Aggregate and Sectoral Effects with an Application to Slovenia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/04/30/the-fiscal-multiplier-of-european-structural-investment-funds-aggregate-and-sectoral-effects-50249), Working Paper No. 2021/118 , April 30, 2021

- [The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/09/25/the-fiscal-multiplier-of-public-investment-the-role-of-corporate-balance-sheet-49763), Working Paper No. 2020/199 , September 25, 2020

- [Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/03/13/systemic-risk-modeling-how-theory-can-meet-statistics-49244), Working Paper No. 2020/054 , March 13, 2020

- [Economic Gains From Gender Inclusion: New Mechanisms, New Evidence](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2018/10/09/economic-gains-from-gender-inclusion-new-mechanisms-new-evidence-45543), Staff Discussion Notes No. 2018/006 , October 8, 2018

- [Macroprudential Stress Tests: A Reduced-Form Approach to Quantifying Systemic Risk Losses](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/03/09/macroprudential-stress-tests-a-reduced-form-approach-to-quantifying-systemic-risk-losses-45691), Working Paper No. 2018/049 , March 9, 2018

- [FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/09/29/fx-intervention-in-the-new-keynesian-model-45215), Working Paper No. 2017/207 , September 29, 2017

- [Unconventional Policy Instruments in the New Keynesian Model](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/unconventional-policy-instruments-in-the-new-keynesian-model-43782), Working Paper No. 2016/058 , March 10, 2016

- [How Do Fiscal and Labor Policies in France Affect Inequality?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/how-do-fiscal-and-labor-policies-in-france-affect-inequality-43753), Working Paper No. 2016/041 , February 29, 2016

- [Wage Moderation in Crises: Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/wage-moderation-in-crises-policy-considerations-and-applications-to-the-euro-area-43162), Staff Discussion Notes No. 2015/022 , November 17, 2015

- [When Should Public Debt Be Reduced?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/when-should-public-debt-be-reduced-42931), Staff Discussion Notes No. 2015/010 , June 1, 2015

- [Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach for France](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/labor-tax-cuts-and-employment-a-general-equilibrium-approach-for-france-41691), Working Paper No. 2014/114 , July 1, 2014

- [The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/books/issues/2016/12/31/the-macroeconomics-of-the-arab-states-of-the-gulf-40185), , November 21, 2013

- [Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/monetary-transaction-costs-and-the-term-premium-40458), Working Paper No. 2013/085 , April 3, 2013

- [Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/optimal-oil-production-and-the-world-supply-of-oil-40169), Working Paper No. 2012/294 , December 17, 2012

- [As You sow so Shall You Reap: Public Investment Surges, Growth, and Debt Sustainability in togo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/as-you-sow-so-shall-you-reap-public-investment-surges-growth-and-debt-sustainability-in-togo-25921), Working Paper No. 2012/127 , May 1, 2012

- [Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/monetary-policy-transmission-in-the-gcc-countries-25934), Working Paper No. 2012/132 , May 1, 2012

- [Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/spillovers-to-low-income-countries-importance-of-systemic-emerging-markets-25729), Working Paper No. 2012/049 , February 1, 2012

- [Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/probabilities-of-default-and-the-market-price-of-risk-in-a-distressed-economy-24774), Working Paper No. 2011/075 , April 1, 2011

- [How Strong are Fiscal Multipliers in the GCC?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/how-strong-are-fiscal-multipliers-in-the-gcc-24715), Working Paper No. 2011/061 , March 1, 2011

- [Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/nonperforming-loans-in-the-gcc-banking-system-and-their-macroeconomic-effects-24258), Working Paper No. 2010/224 , October 1, 2010

- [Recent Credit Stagnation in the Mena Region: What to Expect? What Can Be Done?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/recent-credit-stagnation-in-the-mena-region-what-to-expect-what-can-be-done-24245), Working Paper No. 2010/219 , September 1, 2010

- [Regional Financial Integration in the GCC](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/regional-financial-integration-in-the-gcc-23780), Working Paper No. 2010/090 , April 1, 2010

- [Estimating The Inflation–Growth Nexus—A Smooth Transition Model](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/estimating-the-inflationgrowth-nexus-a-smooth-transition-model-23729), Working Paper No. 2010/076 , March 1, 2010

- [The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/the-role-of-financial-variables-in-predicting-economic-activity-in-the-euro-area-23352), Working Paper No. 2009/241 , November 1, 2009

- [Regional Financial Integration in the Caribbean: Evidence From Financial and Macroeconomic Data](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/regional-financial-integration-in-the-caribbean-evidence-from-financial-and-macroeconomic-23061), Working Paper No. 2009/139 , July 1, 2009

### Other Published Materials

- [Public Investment for the Recovery, Fiscal Monitor, October 2020, Lead author](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/fiscal-monitor/2020/October/English/ch2.ashx)

- [Strengthening the Credibility of Public Finances, Fiscal Monitor, Lead author](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/fiscal-monitor/2021/October/English/ch2.ashx)

- [The State as Financier of Last Resort, 2022, IMF Staff Discussion Note](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2022/10/11/The-State-as-Financier-of-Last-Resort-523706)

### Non-IMF Publications

### Publications in Journals (Referred)

- [The Fiscal Multiplier of Public Investment: The Role of Corporate Balance Sheet, B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2024, with M. Sy and J. Gamboa-Arbalaez](https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/bejm-2023-0077/html)

- [Unconventional policy instruments in the New Keynesian model, Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2024, with Z. Alla and A.R. Ghosh.](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/macroeconomic-dynamics/article/abs/unconventional-policy-instruments-in-the-new-keynesian-model/995487870025873B5B40B551B8BBFFF0)

- [Bargaining the Euro: Making an EU Fiscal Union Politically Acceptable, 2023, European Review, with Filipa Figueira](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-review/article/bargaining-the-euro-making-an-eu-fiscal-union-politically-acceptable/9C6AB56492422E6046BB40FF9AC1076A)

- [Delays in Public Investment Projects, 2022, with A. Presbitero, International Economics](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S211070172100069X?dgcid=coauthor)

- [FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 2020 with Z. Alla and A.R. Ghosh](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jmcb.12683)

- [Labor Tax Cuts and Employment: A General Equilibrium Approach, Economie et Prevision (in French), 2017](https://www.cairn-int.info/article-E_ECOP_210_0113--labour-tax-cuts-and-employment-a.htm)

- [Monetary Transaction Costs and the Term Premium," with D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, 2015](http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00199-014-0817-z)

- [Spillovers to Low-Income Countries: Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets, with E. Dabla-Norris and S. Jahan, Applied Economics, 2015](http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2015.1058903)

- [When Should We Worry About Inflation?, with H. Leon and A. Prasad, World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 26(1), pp. 100-127, 2011](http://wber.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2011/11/04/wber.lhr043.full)

- [Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Pil, with N. Aleksandrov and L. Gyurko, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2013](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188913000389#)

- [State Prices, Liquidity and Default, with C. Goodhart and D. Tsomocos, Economic Theory, Vol. 39, No.2, pp 177-194, 2009.](http://www.springerlink.com/content/8754269138251p7k/)

- [The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity, with F. Fornari and M. Lombardi, Journal of Forecasting, 2011.](http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.1212/abstract)

- [Further Fallout from the Global Financial Crisis - Credit Crunch in the 'Periphery', with A. Barajas, R. Chami and H. Hesse, World Economics, Vol.12(2), 2011.](http://www.world-economics-journal.com/Contents/ArticleOverview.aspx?ID=475)

- [Regional Financial Integration in the GCC, with A. Prasad and O. Williams, Emerging Markets Review, Vol. 12(4), 2011.](http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1566014111000318)

- [Automatic Stabilizers in France (in French, Les Stabilisateurs Automatiques en France), Économie et Prévision, No. 177, 2007.](http://www.cairn.info/revue-economie-et-prevision-2007-1-p-1.htm)

- [State Prices, Liquidity and Default, 2009, with Charles Goodhart and Dimitrios Tsomocos](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40283078)

- [Evaluating the Success of Malaysia's Exchange Controls (1998-99), with A. Abbas, Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 34(2), 2006.](http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13600810600705049#preview)

### Other Published Materials

- [Optimal Oil Extraction as a Multiple Real Option, 2011, with N. Aleksandrov, OxCarre Research Paper 64, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.](http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/images/stories/papers/ResearchPapers/oxcarrerp201164.pdf)

- [Government Spending, Subsidies and Economic Efficiency in the GCC, OxCarre Research Paper 95, University of Oxford, Department of Economics](http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/files/OxCarreRP201295.pdf)

- [Factor Accumulation and the Determinants of TFP in the GCC, OxCarre Research Paper 94, University of Oxford, Department of Economics](http://www.oxcarre.ox.ac.uk/files/OxCarreRP201294.pdf)

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## Content in this bundle

- **CHAPTER 2 PubLIC INveSTMeNT FOR The ReCOveRy**
  - [CHAPTER 2 PubLIC INveSTMeNT FOR The ReCOveRy (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2020/october/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
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- **ch2**
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/research/researcher-cv/author/espinoza-raphael_