{
  "title": "Swarnali Ahmed Hannan — CV",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/research/researcher-cv/author/hannan-swarnali",
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  "summary": "Swarnali Ahmed Hannan is a Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department at the International Monetary Fund, with prior assignments in Research, SPR (Strategy, Policy and Review), and European Departments. She is currently the Mission Chief for St. Lucia. Previously, she served as the Mission Chief for The Bahamas and desk for Brazil, Mexico, St. Lucia, Malta, Portugal, Ghana, and Romania. She spent three years at Goldman Sachs focusing on research related to global macroeconomics, emerging markets, foreign exchange, and fixed income. Her work has been cited in the press, including the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and The Economist. She holds a PhD in economics from Oxford University (UK).",
  "authors": [
    "Swarnali Ahmed Hannan"
  ],
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Biography",
      "content": "Swarnali Ahmed Hannan is a Deputy Division Chief in the Western Hemisphere Department at the International Monetary Fund, with prior assignments in Research, SPR (Strategy, Policy and Review), and European Departments. She is currently the Mission Chief for St. Lucia. Previously, she served as the Mission Chief for The Bahamas and desk for Brazil, Mexico, St. Lucia, Malta, Portugal, Ghana, and Romania. She spent three years at Goldman Sachs focusing on research related to global macroeconomics, emerging markets, foreign exchange, and fixed income. Her work has been cited in the press, including the Financial Times, the Wall Street Journal, and The Economist. She holds a PhD in economics from Oxford University (UK)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Education",
      "content": "- PhD in Economics from Oxford University, UK.\n\n- Bachelors of Arts (with High Honors) from Smith College, USA."
    },
    {
      "heading": "IMF Occasional Papers, Pamphlets, and Special Issues Papers",
      "content": "- Making Trade an Engine of Growth for All, IMF/World Bank/WTO Report 2017."
    },
    {
      "heading": "IMF Direct Blog Posts",
      "content": "- Explaining Strong Credit Growth in Brazil Despite High Policy Rates (with Daniel Leigh and Rui Xu), IMF Country Focus, 2025.\n\n- Fostering Inclusion in Mexico, IMF Country Focus, 2022.\n\n- Mexico on the Rebound (with Kevin Wiseman), IMF Country Focus, 2021."
    },
    {
      "heading": "IMF Books and Working Papers",
      "content": "- The Impact of Labor Litigation Cases on Firm-level Productivity in Brazil, Working Paper No. 2025/063 , April 4, 2025\n\n- Inequality in a More Equal World—Labor Market Gender Gaps in St. Lucia, Working Paper No. 2024/117 , June 14, 2024\n\n- Trade Diversion Effects from Global Tensions—Higher Than We Think, Working Paper No. 2023/234 , November 10, 2023\n\n- A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and their Economic Effects, Working Paper No. 2022/001 , January 7, 2022\n\n- Social Spending in Mexico: Needs, Priorities and Reforms, Working Paper No. 2021/244 , October 18, 2021\n\n- Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features, Working Paper No. 2021/181 , July 9, 2021\n\n- External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?, Working Paper No. 2021/020 , January 29, 2021\n\n- Mexico Needs a Fiscal Twist: Response to Covid-19 and Beyond, Working Paper No. 2020/215 , October 13, 2020\n\n- A Mexican State-level Perspective on Covid-19 and its Economic Fallout, Working Paper No. 2020/214 , October 13, 2020\n\n- Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?, Working Paper No. 2019/251 , November 15, 2019\n\n- The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China’s Shrinking Current Account Surplus, Working Paper No. 2019/244 , November 8, 2019\n\n- The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update, Working Paper No. 2019/065 , March 19, 2019\n\n- Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs, Working Paper No. 2019/009 , January 15, 2019\n\n- Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature, Working Paper No. 2018/214 , September 28, 2018\n\n- The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis, Working Paper No. 2017/052 , March 10, 2017\n\n- The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method, Working Paper No. 2017/045 , March 9, 2017\n\n- The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants, Working Paper No. 2017/041 , March 7, 2017\n\n- The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights, Working Paper No. 2016/117 , June 10, 2016\n\n- If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows, Working Paper No. 2015/256 , December 9, 2015\n\n- Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports, Working Paper No. 2015/252 , November 30, 2015\n\n- Financial Deepening and International Monetary Stability, Staff Discussion Notes No. 2011/016 , October 19, 2011"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Selected Issues",
      "content": "- Exchange Rate and Economic Growth Nexus—A Structural Model to Assess the Trade and Financial Channels (with Vlad Barnaure). Romania Selected Issues, 2017."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Other Published Materials",
      "content": "- Understanding Trade Deficit Adjustments: Does Bilateral Trade play a Special Role? (with Kyun Suk Chang and Sergii Meleshchuk), Box 3 in Chapter 4 “The Determinants of Bilateral Trade and Spillovers from Tariffs”, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2019.\n\n- Tariffs in a Globalized World, IMF Research Perspectives, December 2018.\n\n- IMF External Sector Report (with Luis Cubeddu et. al), 2018\n\n- Can (Un)Happiness Explain Macroeconomics? (with Sweta Saxena), IMF Research Perspectives, June 2018.\n\n- Capital Flows—Review of Experiences with the Institutional View, IMF Board Paper 2016.\n\n- Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Initial Considerations for the Fund, IMF Board Paper 2015.\n\n- Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund, IMF Board Paper 2015.\n\n- Enhancing Surveillance: Interconnectedness and Clusters, IMF Board Paper 2012."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publications in Journals (Refereed)",
      "content": "- Estefania-Flores, Julia, Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew Rose, 2024, “A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and their Economic Effects,” The World Bank Economic Review.\n\n- Pagliari, Maria Sole, and Swarnali A. Hannan, 2024, “The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants,” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 145, Article 103095.\n\n- Estefania-Flores, Julia, Swarnali A. Hannan, Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Rose, 2023, “Are Trade Restrictions Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from a New Aggregate Measure,” Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 45, pp. 745—767.\n\n- Cubeddu, Luis, Swarnali A. Hannan, and Pau Rabanal, 2023, “External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 131, Article 102772.\n\n- Furceri, Davide, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose, 2022, “The Macroeconomy After Tariffs,” The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 36(2), pp. 361—381.\n\n- Hannan, Swarnali A., Keiko Honjo, and Mehdi Raissi, 2022, “Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond,” International Economics, Vol. 169, pp. 175—190.\n\n- Furceri, Davide, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose, 2020, “Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries,” Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 42, pp. 850—859.\n\n- Hannan, Swarnali Ahmed, 2017, “The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis,” Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 8 (2).\n\n- Ahmed, Swarnali, Maximiliano Appendino, and Michele Ruta, 2017, “Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports,” The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Advances), Vol. 17 (1), pp. 1—24."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Publications in Books and Conference Volumes",
      "content": "- Hannan, Swarnali Ahmed, 2020, “The Determinants of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets,” in Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz, ed., Encyclopedia of International Economics and Global Trade, Vol. 2: International Money and Finance, World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore, chapter 2."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Other Published Materials",
      "content": "- Assessing the effect of policy restrictions on international trade—A New Dataset and Policy Implications (with Julia Estefania-Flores, Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Rose), Policy Brief in the European Money and Finance Forum, 2025\n\n- The IMF’s Role in Supporting Small Developing States, in Harborside Chat with Governor Rolle (Central Bank of The Bahamas). Telecast in TV channel and available in youtube. 2024.\n\n- Recovering from pandemics: Policies and structural features matter (with Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre), VoxEU, 2021.\n\n- Macro reasons to loath protectionism (with Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Rose), VoxEU, 2019.\n\n- All you need to know about the drivers of capital flows, Econbrowser, 2019.\n\n- Impact of trade agreements: New approach, new insights, VoxEU, 2016.\n\n- Depreciation without exports (with Maximiliano Appendino and Michele Ruta), VoxEU, 2015.\n\n- Wilson, Dominic, and Swarnali Ahmed, 2010, “Current Account and Demographics: The Road Ahead,” Global Economic Paper No: 202, Goldman Sachs Economic Research."
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "PhD in Economics from Oxford University, UK.",
    "Bachelors of Arts (with High Honors) from Smith College, USA.",
    "[Making Trade an Engine of Growth for All, IMF/World Bank/WTO Report 2017.](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2017/04/08/making-trade-an-engine-of-growth-for-all)",
    "[Explaining Strong Credit Growth in Brazil Despite High Policy Rates (with Daniel Leigh and Rui Xu), IMF Country Focus, 2025.](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/10/09/explaining-strong-credit-growth-in-brazil-despite-high-policy-rates)",
    "[Fostering Inclusion in Mexico, IMF Country Focus, 2022.](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2022/01/24/cf-fostering-inclusion-in-mexico)",
    "[Mexico on the Rebound (with Kevin Wiseman), IMF Country Focus, 2021.](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2021/11/04/na110421-mexico-on-the-rebound)",
    "[The Impact of Labor Litigation Cases on Firm-level Productivity in Brazil](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/04/04/the-impact-of-labor-litigation-cases-on-firm-level-productivity-in-brazil-565732), Working Paper No. 2025/063 , April 4, 2025",
    "[Inequality in a More Equal World—Labor Market Gender Gaps in St. Lucia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2024/06/14/inequality-in-a-more-equal-world-labor-market-gender-gaps-in-st-550512), Working Paper No. 2024/117 , June 14, 2024",
    "[Trade Diversion Effects from Global Tensions—Higher Than We Think](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2023/11/10/trade-diversion-effects-from-global-tensions-higher-than-we-think-539680), Working Paper No. 2023/234 , November 10, 2023",
    "[A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and their Economic Effects](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2022/01/07/a-measurement-of-aggregate-trade-restrictions-and-their-economic-effects-511286), Working Paper No. 2022/001 , January 7, 2022",
    "[Social Spending in Mexico: Needs, Priorities and Reforms](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/10/18/social-spending-in-mexico-needs-priorities-and-reforms-494702), Working Paper No. 2021/244 , October 18, 2021",
    "[Recoveries After Pandemics: The Role of Policies and Structural Features](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/07/09/recoveries-after-pandemics-the-role-of-policies-and-structural-features-461329), Working Paper No. 2021/181 , July 9, 2021",
    "[External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2021/01/29/external-financing-risks-how-important-is-the-composition-of-the-international-investment-50029), Working Paper No. 2021/020 , January 29, 2021",
    "[Mexico Needs a Fiscal Twist: Response to Covid-19 and Beyond](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/10/13/mexico-needs-a-fiscal-twist-response-to-covid-19-and-beyond-49817), Working Paper No. 2020/215 , October 13, 2020",
    "[A Mexican State-level Perspective on Covid-19 and its Economic Fallout](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2020/10/13/a-mexican-state-level-perspective-on-covid-19-and-its-economic-fallout-49818), Working Paper No. 2020/214 , October 13, 2020",
    "[Managed Trade: What Could be Possible Spillover Effects of a Potential Trade Agreement Between the U.S. and China?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/11/15/managed-trade-what-could-be-possible-spillover-effects-of-a-potential-trade-agreement-48771), Working Paper No. 2019/251 , November 15, 2019",
    "[The Drivers, Implications and Outlook for China’s Shrinking Current Account Surplus](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/11/08/the-drivers-implications-and-outlook-for-chinas-shrinking-current-account-surplus-48712), Working Paper No. 2019/244 , November 8, 2019",
    "[The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/03/19/the-external-balance-assessment-methodology-2018-update-46643), Working Paper No. 2019/065 , March 19, 2019",
    "[Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2019/01/15/macroeconomic-consequences-of-tariffs-46469), Working Paper No. 2019/009 , January 15, 2019",
    "[Revisiting the Determinants of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets--A Survey of the Evolving Literature](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2018/09/28/revisiting-the-determinants-of-capital-flows-to-emerging-markets-a-survey-of-the-evolving-46271), Working Paper No. 2018/214 , September 28, 2018",
    "[The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/03/10/the-drivers-of-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets-post-global-financial-crisis-44739), Working Paper No. 2017/052 , March 10, 2017",
    "[The Impact of Trade Agreements in Latin America using the Synthetic Control Method](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/03/09/the-impact-of-trade-agreements-in-latin-america-using-the-synthetic-control-method-44731), Working Paper No. 2017/045 , March 9, 2017",
    "[The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2017/03/07/the-volatility-of-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets-measures-and-determinants-44725), Working Paper No. 2017/041 , March 7, 2017",
    "[The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/the-impact-of-trade-agreements-new-approach-new-insights-43956), Working Paper No. 2016/117 , June 10, 2016",
    "[If the Fed Acts, How Do You React? The Liftoff Effect on Capital Flows](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/if-the-fed-acts-how-do-you-react-the-liftoff-effect-on-capital-flows-43444), Working Paper No. 2015/256 , December 9, 2015",
    "[Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2016/12/31/global-value-chains-and-the-exchange-rate-elasticity-of-exports-43424), Working Paper No. 2015/252 , November 30, 2015",
    "[Financial Deepening and International Monetary Stability](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2016/12/31/financial-deepening-and-international-monetary-stability-25291), Staff Discussion Notes No. 2011/016 , October 19, 2011",
    "Exchange Rate and Economic Growth Nexus—A Structural Model to Assess the Trade and Financial Channels (with Vlad Barnaure). Romania Selected Issues, 2017.",
    "Understanding Trade Deficit Adjustments: Does Bilateral Trade play a Special Role? (with Kyun Suk Chang and Sergii Meleshchuk), Box 3 in Chapter 4 “The Determinants of Bilateral Trade and Spillovers from Tariffs”, IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2019.",
    "[Tariffs in a Globalized World, IMF Research Perspectives, December 2018.](https://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/irb/2018/FallWinter/index.pdf)",
    "[IMF External Sector Report (with Luis Cubeddu et. al), 2018](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ESR/Issues/2018/07/19/2018-external-sector-report)",
    "[Can (Un)Happiness Explain Macroeconomics? (with Sweta Saxena), IMF Research Perspectives, June 2018.](https://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/irb/2018/SpringSummer/index.pdf)",
    "[Capital Flows—Review of Experiences with the Institutional View, IMF Board Paper 2016.](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2017/01/13/PP5081-Capital-Flows-Review-of-Experience-with-the-Institutional-View)",
    "[Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance: Initial Considerations for the Fund, IMF Board Paper 2015.](https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/101315.pdf)",
    "[Review of the Role of Trade in the Work of the Fund, IMF Board Paper 2015.](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/Review-of-the-Role-of-Trade-in-the-Work-of-the-Fund-PP4939)",
    "[Enhancing Surveillance: Interconnectedness and Clusters, IMF Board Paper 2012.](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2016/12/31/Enhancing-Surveillance-Interconnectedness-and-Clusters-PP4719)",
    "Estefania-Flores, Julia, Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew Rose, 2024, “A Measurement of Aggregate Trade Restrictions and their Economic Effects,” The World Bank Economic Review.",
    "Pagliari, Maria Sole, and Swarnali A. Hannan, 2024, “The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants,” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 145, Article 103095.",
    "Estefania-Flores, Julia, Swarnali A. Hannan, Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Rose, 2023, “Are Trade Restrictions Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from a New Aggregate Measure,” Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 45, pp. 745—767.",
    "Cubeddu, Luis, Swarnali A. Hannan, and Pau Rabanal, 2023, “External Financing Risks: How Important is the Composition of the International Investment Position?” Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 131, Article 102772.",
    "Furceri, Davide, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose, 2022, “The Macroeconomy After Tariffs,” The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 36(2), pp. 361—381.",
    "Hannan, Swarnali A., Keiko Honjo, and Mehdi Raissi, 2022, “Mexico needs a fiscal twist: Response to Covid-19 and beyond,” International Economics, Vol. 169, pp. 175—190.",
    "Furceri, Davide, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose, 2020, “Are tariffs bad for growth? Yes, say five decades of data from 150 countries,” Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 42, pp. 850—859.",
    "Hannan, Swarnali Ahmed, 2017, “The Drivers of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets Post Global Financial Crisis,” Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 8 (2).",
    "Ahmed, Swarnali, Maximiliano Appendino, and Michele Ruta, 2017, “Global value chains and the exchange rate elasticity of exports,” The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (Advances), Vol. 17 (1), pp. 1—24.",
    "Hannan, Swarnali Ahmed, 2020, “The Determinants of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets,” in Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz, ed., Encyclopedia of International Economics and Global Trade, Vol. 2: International Money and Finance, World Scientific Publishing Co., Singapore, chapter 2.",
    "[Assessing the effect of policy restrictions on international trade—A New Dataset and Policy Implications (with Julia Estefania-Flores, Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Rose), Policy Brief in the European Money and Finance Forum, 2025](https://www.suerf.org/publications/suerf-policy-notes-and-briefs/assessing-the-effect-of-policy-restrictions-on-international-trade-a-new-dataset-and-policy-implications/)",
    "[The IMF’s Role in Supporting Small Developing States, in Harborside Chat with Governor Rolle (Central Bank of The Bahamas). Telecast in TV channel and available in youtube. 2024.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjvEu3xuGCY)",
    "[Recovering from pandemics: Policies and structural features matter (with Juan Pablo Cuesta Aguirre), VoxEU, 2021.](https://voxeu.org/article/recovering-pandemics-policies-and-structural-features-matter)",
    "[Macro reasons to loath protectionism (with Davide Furceri, Jonathan D. Ostry, Andrew Rose), VoxEU, 2019.](https://voxeu.org/article/macro-reasons-loath-protectionism)",
    "[All you need to know about the drivers of capital flows, Econbrowser, 2019.](http://econbrowser.com/archives/2019/01/guest-contribution-all-you-need-to-know-about-the-drivers-of-capital-flows)",
    "[Impact of trade agreements: New approach, new insights, VoxEU, 2016.](https://voxeu.org/article/impact-trade-agreements-new-approach-new-insights)",
    "[Depreciation without exports (with Maximiliano Appendino and Michele Ruta), VoxEU, 2015.](https://voxeu.org/article/depreciations-without-exports)",
    "Wilson, Dominic, and Swarnali Ahmed, 2010, “Current Account and Demographics: The Road Ahead,” Global Economic Paper No: 202, Goldman Sachs Economic Research."
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