Climate Change

This paper presents a nowcasting model for global trade that allows for regional dynamics and spillovers. World trade growth is driven by common global factors but also regional trends. While existing trade nowcasting models have focused on the former, we allow for the latter using a dynamic factor model (DFM) with a multi-factor block structure. By directly modeling global trends, regional variation and spillovers, we improve on the performance of standard trade nowcasting models, particularly periods characterized by regional heterogeneity. A multi-factor regional framework may be particularly advantageous for tracking trade developments in the future given a period changing trade patterns and geo-economic fragmentation. The model also sheds light on trade spillovers and the drivers of news in global trade: Asia, in particular, has notable spillovers to the global and other regional trade cycles.

This paper examines how Malta’s justice system impacts the efficiency of debt enforcement and insolvency proceedings, with implications for credit allocation and business and investment environment. Drawing on cross-country benchmarking, institutional diagnostics, and recent reforms, it identifies structural bottlenecks—particularly case backlogs, procedural inefficiencies and capacity constraints—that hinder timely resolution of judicial proceedings and credit enforcement. The analysis outlines priorities for strengthening enforcement, enhancing insolvency frameworks, improving court procedures and judicial system modernization via the use of technology.

This paper employs a Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess the impact of macro-financial variables on the growth rate distribution of Malta over a one-to-two-year horizon. The analysis suggests that while the baseline outlook is positive, large tail risks are associated with the domestic risk factors related to residential housing prices and household credit. Conversely, external factors from the Euro Area are likely to have a smaller direct impact on the growth rate distribution, transmitted through financial conditions in the bloc.

This paper presents a global empirical analysis of how industrial policies (IPs) affect patent applications, with an instrumental-variable strategy that addresses selection in policy targeting by leveraging retaliatory dynamics. On average, IPs do not increase domestic patent applications over a four-year period, except when they target sectors with potential distortions or externalities, such as infant industries or low-carbon technologies. However, IPs temporarily boost foreign patent filings within the same timeframe, consistent with strategic front-loading by foreign inventors seeking to secure technology protection, and perhaps market access, in the IP-targeted sector. This link between foreign patent applications and IPs is stronger for export-oriented policies compared to domestic subsidies, for IPs targeting innovation-central sectors, and in emerging markets and developing economies.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a technical assistance mission to the People's Republic of China to enhance risk assessment methodologies within the State Taxation Administration (STA). The project aimed to improve compliance and efficiency through structured approaches, leveraging big data and artificial intelligence. Key findings highlighted the need for segmentation of taxpayer populations and strengthening governance and accountability frameworks. Recommendations included implementing a systematic risk assessment approach and enhancing data sharing capabilities across provinces.

This report presents the results of a repeat Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool (TADAT) assessment conducted in Bangladesh during October 2025. The assessment evaluated the National Board of Revenue’s (NBR) performance across nine key outcome areas against international good practice. NBR demonstrated strengths in taxpayer information accessibility, withholding tax systems, and dispute resolution frameworks. Nevertheless, notable deficiencies remain regarding the integrity of taxpayer registration, risk management practices, audit efficiency, VAT refund processing, and overall transparency. Key focus areas for improvement include integrated digitalization, compliance risk management, audit quality, and accelerating Medium- and Long-Term Revenue Strategy (MLTRS) reforms to boost tax revenue and administrative efficiency.