{ "title": "Topic 3: Building Resilience", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/topics/low-income-countries/macro-research-for-development/building-resilience", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/topics/low-income-countries/macro-research-for-development/building-resilience", "overlayPath": "/en/topics/low-income-countries/macro-research-for-development/building-resilience/index.md", "summary": "Under this topic, we plan an extensive effort to understand how countries can build resilience in the face of such developments. What follows is a brief description of the progress made in phase 2, 3 and 4 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Building resilience is a key topic under the FCDO-IMF partnership on research on the macroeconomics of low-income countries (LICs).\n- The work addresses challenges that hinder sustained growth in LICs, including:\n - COVID-19 pandemic.\n - Natural disasters.\n - Effects of climate change.\n - Large outflows and inflows of labor due to developments such as conflicts.\n- The partnership plans an extensive effort to understand how countries can build resilience in the face of such developments.\n- Project Managers: Petia Topalova; Emine Boz.\n- Contact: MacroResDev@imf.org." }, { "heading": "Phase 2 (April 2015 to March 2017)", "content": "- Focus:\n - Work under the theme of building resilience began in the last year of phase 2.\n - Producing new research on optimal macroeconomic policies to help LICs enhance resilience to the effects of climate change and natural disasters.\n- Achievements (examples):\n - A research paper: \"Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model\".\n - A policy paper: \"Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF\".\n- Outputs: Referenced report for year 5 of the FCDO-IMF partnership lists all work produced under phase 2." }, { "heading": "Phase 3 (April 2017 to March 2020)", "content": "- Focus:\n - Extensions of the Debt, Investment and Growth (DIG) models, integrated assessment models (IAMs), and heterogeneous agents’ macroeconomic and distributional analysis models (MDAMs).\n - Incorporate features capturing main channels through which natural disasters and climate change affect LICs.\n- Analytical advances and policy relevance:\n - For natural disasters, models help prioritize areas of risk mitigation and suggest ways of organizing and financing post-disaster recovery.\n - For climate change, models illuminate short-run macroeconomic and growth implications of adaptation and the distributional impact of major policies: cap and trade, carbon tax, and phasing in of renewable energy.\n- Achievements (examples):\n - Paper: \"Building Resilience to Natural Disasters: An Application to Small Developing States\".\n - Paper: \"Emissions and Growth: Trends and Cycles in a Globalized World\".\n - Policy paper: \"Building Resilience in Developing Countries Vulnerable to Large Natural Disasters\".\n- Outputs: Referenced reports for year 6, year 7, and year 8 of the FCDO-IMF partnership list all work produced under phase 3." }, { "heading": "Phase 4 (April 2020 to March 2025)", "content": "- Focus areas:\n - Macro criticality of climate-change-related natural disaster shocks, including pandemic situations like COVID-19.\n - Empirical examination of the economic consequences of severe epidemics and similar health-related shocks.\n - Revisiting industry diversification and sector vulnerability upon natural disaster shocks.\n - Integrated assessment on long-run impacts of climate change in LICs.\n- Outputs: Upcoming reports for years 9–13 will list work produced under phase 4." }, { "heading": "Cross-cutting research themes and methods", "content": "- Models and approaches:\n - Debt, Investment and Growth (DIG) models.\n - Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).\n - Heterogeneous agents’ macroeconomic and distributional analysis models (MDAMs).\n- Policy questions addressed:\n - How to prioritize risk mitigation investments.\n - How to organize and finance post-disaster recovery.\n - Distributional effects of climate-mitigation policies (cap and trade; carbon tax; phasing in of renewable energy).\n - Industry diversification and sector vulnerability to natural disaster shocks.\n - Long-run impacts of climate change and severe epidemics on LIC macroeconomies." }, { "heading": "Outputs inventory and administrative notes", "content": "- Outputs list referenced: \"List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (Excel)\".\n- Related evaluations: \"Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a FCDO-IMF Collaboration\"; \"External Review of the IMF/FCDO Collaboration\".\n- Administrative contact: MacroResDev@imf.org." } ], "bullets": [ "Building resilience is a key topic under the FCDO-IMF partnership on research on the macroeconomics of low-income countries (LICs).", "The work addresses challenges that hinder sustained growth in LICs, including:", "The partnership plans an extensive effort to understand how countries can build resilience in the face of such developments.", "Project Managers: Petia Topalova; Emine Boz.", "Contact: MacroResDev@imf.org.", "Focus:", "Achievements (examples):", "Outputs: Referenced report for year 5 of the FCDO-IMF partnership lists all work produced under phase 2.", "Focus:", "Analytical advances and policy relevance:", "Achievements (examples):", "Outputs: Referenced reports for year 6, year 7, and year 8 of the FCDO-IMF partnership list all work produced under phase 3.", "Focus areas:", "Outputs: Upcoming reports for years 9–13 will list work produced under phase 4.", "Models and approaches:", "Policy questions addressed:", "Outputs list referenced: \"List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (Excel)\".", "Related evaluations: \"Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a FCDO-IMF Collaboration\"; \"External Review of the IMF/FCDO Collaboration\".", "Administrative contact: MacroResDev@imf.org.", "**June 2019**", "**June 2020**", "**June 2021**", "**June 2022**", "**June 2023**", "**June 2024**", "**June 2025**", "**Call to Donors to Strengthen IMF Research Capacity for Low-Income Countries**", "**MRLIC programme review — By March 2018**", "[List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/listofoutputs.xlsx){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}", "**Dec 2018, Vol.6**", "**Dec 2019, Vol.7**", "**Dec 2020, Vol.8**", "**Dec 2021, Vol.9**", "**Dec 2022, Vol.10**", "**Dec 2023, Vol.11**", "**Dec 2024, Vol.12**", "**Dec 2025, Vol.13**", "**Jun 2018, Vol.6**", "**Jun 2019, Vol.7**", "**Jun 2020, Vol.8**", "**Jun 2021, Vol.9**", "**Jun 2022, Vol.10**", "**Jun 2023, Vol.11**", "**Jun 2024, Vol.12**", "[Jun 2025, Vol.13 (PDF)](/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2025.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "**Mar 2018, Vol.6**", "**Mar 2019, Vol.7**", "**Mar 2020, Vol.8**", "**Mar 2021, Vol.9**", "**Mar 2022, Vol.10**", "**Mar 2023, Vol.11**", "[Mar 2024, Vol.12 (PDF)](/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2024.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "**Mar 2025, Vol.13**", "**Mar 2026, Vol.14**", "**Sep 2018, Vol.6**", "**Sep 2019, Vol.7**", "**Sep 2020, Vol.8**", "**Sep 2021, Vol.9**", "**Sep 2022, Vol.10**", "**Sep 2023, Vol.11**", "**Sep 2024, Vol.12**", "[Sep 2025, Vol.13 (PDF)](/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/sep2025.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "**Devarajan–O'Connell final report on the MRLIC project**", "[Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF (PDF)](/external/np/pp/eng/2016/110416.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp16164.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}" ], "related": [ { "title": "June 2019", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2019.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2019.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2019.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2020", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2020.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2020.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2020.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2021", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2021.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2021.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2021.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2022", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2022.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2022.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2022.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2023", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2023.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2023.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2023.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2024", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2024.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2024.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2024.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2025", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2025.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2025.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2025.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Call to Donors to Strengthen IMF Research Capacity for Low-Income Countries", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/call-to-donors-to-strengthen-imf-research-capacity-for-low-income-countries-nov-2025.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/call-to-donors-to-strengthen-imf-research-capacity-for-low-income-countries-nov-2025.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/call-to-donors-to-strengthen-imf-research-capacity-for-low-income-countries-nov-2025.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "MRLIC programme review — By March 2018", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2018.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2018.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": 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"path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/dec2021.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/dec2021.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Dec 2022, Vol.10", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/dec2022.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/dec2022.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/dec2022.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Dec 2023, Vol.11", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/dec2023.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/dec2023.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" 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"path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2022.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2022.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Jun 2023, Vol.11", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2023.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2023.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2023.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Jun 2024, Vol.12", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2024.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2024.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2024.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Jun 2025, Vol.13", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2025.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2025.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2018, Vol.6", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2018.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2018.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2018.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2019, Vol.7", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2019.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2019.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2019.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2020, Vol.8", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2020.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2020.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2020.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2021, Vol.9", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2021.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2021.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2021.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2022, Vol.10", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2022.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2022.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2022.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2023, Vol.11", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2023.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2023.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2023.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2024, Vol.12", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2024.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2024.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2025, Vol.13", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2025.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2025.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2025.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2026, Vol.14", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2026.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2026.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2026.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Sep 2018, Vol.6", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/sep2018.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/sep2018.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/sep2018.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Sep 2019, Vol.7", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/sep2019.pdf", "summary": { 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