{ "title": "Topic 2: Understanding Macro-financial Linkages", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/topics/low-income-countries/macro-research-for-development/understanding-macro-financial-linkages", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/topics/low-income-countries/macro-research-for-development/understanding-macro-financial-linkages", "overlayPath": "/en/topics/low-income-countries/macro-research-for-development/understanding-macro-financial-linkages/index.md", "summary": "The work under this topic has made significant progress in tackling the issues of financial inclusion, macroprudential policies, and capital flows.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Low-income countries (LICs) need financial development as well as financial stability.\n- Financial depth is key to mitigating shocks like the adverse impacts under the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.\n- Key policy question: How to transition to deeper financial markets while maintaining financial stability.\n- The work has made significant progress on financial inclusion, macroprudential policies, and capital flows through a four-phase FCDO-IMF partnership on research on the macroeconomics of LICs." }, { "heading": "Phase 1 (March 2012 to March 2015)", "content": "- Focus: Nature and implications of shallow financial systems in LICs and challenges for allocating capital, diversifying risk, managing macroeconomic volatility, and promoting growth.\n- Methods: Case studies and empirical analysis to examine impediments to financial deepening and implications for macroeconomic policy implementation and financial stability.\n- Representative outputs:\n - \"The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?\"\n - \"Identifying Constraints to Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP and Inequality: A Structural Framework for Policy.\"\n- Reference reporting: reports for year 1, year 2, and year 3 of the FCDO-IMF partnership." }, { "heading": "Phase 2 (April 2015 to March 2017)", "content": "- Focus areas: Financial deepening and inclusion; design of macroprudential policies; private capital flows; current account liberalization.\n- Objectives:\n - Understand new developments in private capital flows in LICs and assess potential risks associated with gaining market access by frontier LICs.\n - Understand the impact of opening the capital account in LICs.\n- Representative outputs:\n - \"Macroprudential Policy, Incomplete Information and Inequality: The case of Low-Income and Developing Countries.\"\n - \"Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries.\"\n - \"Non-FDI Capital Inflows in Low-Income Developing Countries: Catching the Wave?\"\n - High-level conference: \"Managing Capital Flows: Challenges for Developing Countries.\"\n- Reference reporting: reports for year 4, and year 5 of the FCDO-IMF partnership." }, { "heading": "Phase 3 (April 2017 to March 2020)", "content": "- Research aims: Improve quality of policy advice via thorough investigation of macro-financial linkages in LICs.\n- Two main components:\n - Development of a new and extensive data set on banking structure, lending and macro-prudential policies in selected developing countries; use of granular bank-, sector-, and loan-level data in empirical analysis.\n - Quantitative assessment of financial sector policy frameworks, including macroprudential policy, microprudential bank supervision, and crisis preparedness and management.\n- Representative outputs:\n - High-level conference: \"Financial Inclusion: Drivers and Real Effects.\"\n - Research papers: \"Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending\" and \"Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks.\"\n- Reference reporting: reports for year 6, year 7, and year 8 of the FCDO-IMF partnership." }, { "heading": "Phase 4 (April 2020 to March 2025)", "content": "- Focus areas under current phase:\n - Examine main drivers of the persistently high cost of remittances—which are projected to largely decline during the COVID-19 pandemic—while recognizing remittances are now a major source of financing for many LICs.\n - Identify where policy interventions may be justified to address barriers to flows.\n - Examine the nexus between financial and economic developments.\n- Reference reporting: upcoming reports for years 9-13 of the FCDO-IMF partnership." }, { "heading": "Outputs and Contact", "content": "- Aggregate outputs: List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (Excel) and a box on outputs summarizing products produced under each of the four phases.\n- Related institutional materials: Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a FCDO-IMF Collaboration; External Review of the IMF/FCDO Collaboration; Project Managers: Petia Topalova, Emine Boz.\n- Contact: MacroResDev@imf.org" } ], "bullets": [ "Low-income countries (LICs) need financial development as well as financial stability.", "Financial depth is key to mitigating shocks like the adverse impacts under the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.", "Key policy question: How to transition to deeper financial markets while maintaining financial stability.", "The work has made significant progress on financial inclusion, macroprudential policies, and capital flows through a four-phase FCDO-IMF partnership on research on the macroeconomics of LICs.", "Focus: Nature and implications of shallow financial systems in LICs and challenges for allocating capital, diversifying risk, managing macroeconomic volatility, and promoting growth.", "Methods: Case studies and empirical analysis to examine impediments to financial deepening and implications for macroeconomic policy implementation and financial stability.", "Representative outputs:", "Reference reporting: reports for year 1, year 2, and year 3 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.", "Focus areas: Financial deepening and inclusion; design of macroprudential policies; private capital flows; current account liberalization.", "Objectives:", "Representative outputs:", "Reference reporting: reports for year 4, and year 5 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.", "Research aims: Improve quality of policy advice via thorough investigation of macro-financial linkages in LICs.", "Two main components:", "Representative outputs:", "Reference reporting: reports for year 6, year 7, and year 8 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.", "Focus areas under current phase:", "Reference reporting: upcoming reports for years 9-13 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.", "Aggregate outputs: List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (Excel) and a box on outputs summarizing products produced under each of the four phases.", "Related institutional materials: Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a FCDO-IMF Collaboration; External Review of the IMF/FCDO Collaboration; Project Managers: Petia Topalova, Emine Boz.", "Contact: MacroResDev@imf.org", "**wp1759**", "**June 2019**", "**June 2020**", "**June 2021**", "**June 2022**", "**June 2023**", "**June 2024**", "**June 2025**", "**Call to Donors to Strengthen IMF Research Capacity for Low-Income Countries**", "**Macroeconomic Research in Low Income Countries — June 2013**", "**Macroeconomic Research in Low Income Countries — June 2014**", "**June2015**", "**Annual Review of the Macroeconomic Research in Low Income Countries project**", "**June2017**", "**MRLIC programme review — By March 2018**", "[List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (XLSX)](/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/listofoutputs.xlsx){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}", "**Dec 2018, Vol.6**", "**Dec 2019, Vol.7**", "**Dec 2020, Vol.8**", "**Dec 2021, Vol.9**", "**Dec 2022, Vol.10**", "**Dec 2023, Vol.11**", "**Dec 2024, Vol.12**", "**Dec 2025, Vol.13**", "**Jun 2018, Vol.6**", "**Jun 2019, Vol.7**", "**Jun 2020, Vol.8**", "**Jun 2021, Vol.9**", "**Jun 2022, Vol.10**", "**Jun 2023, Vol.11**", "**Jun 2024, Vol.12**", "[Jun 2025, Vol.13 (PDF)](/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2025.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "**Mar 2018, Vol.6**", "**Mar 2019, Vol.7**", "**Mar 2020, Vol.8**", "**Mar 2021, Vol.9**", "**Mar 2022, Vol.10**", "**Mar 2023, Vol.11**", "[Mar 2024, Vol.12 (PDF)](/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2024.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "**Mar 2025, Vol.13**", "**Mar 2026, Vol.14**", "**Sep 2018, Vol.6**", "**Sep 2019, Vol.7**", "**Sep 2020, Vol.8**", "**Sep 2021, Vol.9**", "**Sep 2022, Vol.10**", "**Sep 2023, Vol.11**", "**Sep 2024, Vol.12**", "[Sep 2025, Vol.13 (PDF)](/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/sep2025.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "**Devarajan–O'Connell final report on the MRLIC project**", "[Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp15163.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Wp1522 (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1522.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Wp1586 (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1586.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}" ], "related": [ { "title": "wp1759", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp1759.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp1759.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/wp/2017/wp1759.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2019", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2019.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2019.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2019.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2020", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2020.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2020.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/dfid-ar-june2020.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2021", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2021.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2021.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2021.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2022", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2022.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2022.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2022.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2023", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2023.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2023.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2023.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2024", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2024.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2024.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2024.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June 2025", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2025.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/annual-reports/fcdo-ar-june2025.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": 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"https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2013.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2013.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2013.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Macroeconomic Research in Low Income Countries — June 2014", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2014.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2014.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2014.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June2015", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2015.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2015.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2015.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Annual Review of the Macroeconomic Research in Low Income Countries project", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2016.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2016.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2016.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "June2017", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2017.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2017.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2017.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "MRLIC programme review — By March 2018", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2018.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2018.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/documents/june2018.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": 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"path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2020.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2020.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Jun 2021, Vol.9", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2021.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2021.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2021.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Jun 2022, Vol.10", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2022.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2022.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2022.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Jun 2023, Vol.11", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2023.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2023.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2023.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Jun 2024, Vol.12", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2024.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2024.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2024.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Jun 2025, Vol.13", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2025.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/jun2025.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2018, Vol.6", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2018.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2018.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2018.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Mar 2019, Vol.7", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/topics/lics/macro-research-for-development/newsletters/mar2019.pdf", "summary": { "path": 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