## Topic 2: Understanding Macro-financial Linkages

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Topic 2: Understanding Macro-financial Linkages](https://www.imf.org/en/topics/low-income-countries/macro-research-for-development/understanding-macro-financial-linkages)

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---

### Overview
- Low-income countries (LICs) need financial development as well as financial stability.
- Financial depth is key to mitigating shocks like the adverse impacts under the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
- Key policy question: How to transition to deeper financial markets while maintaining financial stability.
- The work has made significant progress on financial inclusion, macroprudential policies, and capital flows through a four-phase FCDO-IMF partnership on research on the macroeconomics of LICs.

### Phase 1 (March 2012 to March 2015)
- Focus: Nature and implications of shallow financial systems in LICs and challenges for allocating capital, diversifying risk, managing macroeconomic volatility, and promoting growth.
- Methods: Case studies and empirical analysis to examine impediments to financial deepening and implications for macroeconomic policy implementation and financial stability.
- Representative outputs:
  - "The Finance and Growth Nexus Re-Examined: Do All Countries Benefit Equally?"
  - "Identifying Constraints to Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP and Inequality: A Structural Framework for Policy."
- Reference reporting: reports for year 1, year 2, and year 3 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.

### Phase 2 (April 2015 to March 2017)
- Focus areas: Financial deepening and inclusion; design of macroprudential policies; private capital flows; current account liberalization.
- Objectives:
  - Understand new developments in private capital flows in LICs and assess potential risks associated with gaining market access by frontier LICs.
  - Understand the impact of opening the capital account in LICs.
- Representative outputs:
  - "Macroprudential Policy, Incomplete Information and Inequality: The case of Low-Income and Developing Countries."
  - "Joining the Club? Procyclicality of Private Capital Inflows in Low Income Developing Countries."
  - "Non-FDI Capital Inflows in Low-Income Developing Countries: Catching the Wave?"
  - High-level conference: "Managing Capital Flows: Challenges for Developing Countries."
- Reference reporting: reports for year 4, and year 5 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.

### Phase 3 (April 2017 to March 2020)
- Research aims: Improve quality of policy advice via thorough investigation of macro-financial linkages in LICs.
- Two main components:
  - Development of a new and extensive data set on banking structure, lending and macro-prudential policies in selected developing countries; use of granular bank-, sector-, and loan-level data in empirical analysis.
  - Quantitative assessment of financial sector policy frameworks, including macroprudential policy, microprudential bank supervision, and crisis preparedness and management.
- Representative outputs:
  - High-level conference: "Financial Inclusion: Drivers and Real Effects."
  - Research papers: "Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending" and "Mobilization Effects of Multilateral Development Banks."
- Reference reporting: reports for year 6, year 7, and year 8 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.

### Phase 4 (April 2020 to March 2025)
- Focus areas under current phase:
  - Examine main drivers of the persistently high cost of remittances—which are projected to largely decline during the COVID-19 pandemic—while recognizing remittances are now a major source of financing for many LICs.
  - Identify where policy interventions may be justified to address barriers to flows.
  - Examine the nexus between financial and economic developments.
- Reference reporting: upcoming reports for years 9-13 of the FCDO-IMF partnership.

### Outputs and Contact
- Aggregate outputs: List of Outputs: Year 1 to 13 (Excel) and a box on outputs summarizing products produced under each of the four phases.
- Related institutional materials: Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a FCDO-IMF Collaboration; External Review of the IMF/FCDO Collaboration; Project Managers: Petia Topalova, Emine Boz.
- Contact: MacroResDev@imf.org

---

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---

## References

- [Advances Made in Five Key Areas Through a FCDO-IMF Collaboration](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/03/24/Macroeconomic-Research-in-Low-income-Countries-Advances-Made-in-Five-Key-Areas-Through-a-50010)
- [workshop](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/14/01/49/pr1689)
- [Managing Capital Flows: Challenges for Developing Countries.](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Seminars/Conferences/2017/04/28/managing-capital-flows-challenges-for-developing-economies)
- [Financial Inclusion: Drivers and Real Effects](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Seminars/Conferences/2018/01/29/conference-on-financial-inclusion-drivers-and-real-effects)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/topics/low-income-countries/macro-research-for-development/understanding-macro-financial-linkages_