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INTERVIEW WITH
PIERRE-OLIVER GOURINCHAS
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas became the new Economic Counsellor and the Director of Research of the IMF in January 2022. He sat down with us for an in-depth interview to discuss his life, career, and views on economics, including how the field of international macroeconomics has evolved over the last 30 years.
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INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND THE
SUPPLY CHAIN
Elias Albagli, Francesco Grigoli and Emiliano Luttini
The future path of aggregate inflation is a key issue for managers at firms when making decisions about pricing, production, and employment. In turn, because firms are the price-setters in the economy, firms’ expectations about inflation can affect realized inflation in the future. But how do managers actually form their expectations about inflation? We study how the prices charged by firms’ suppliers affect inflation expectations using unique survey and administrative data on Chilean firms.
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ANCHORING HETEROGENEOUS
HOUSEHOLD INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
Gee Hee Hong
What do you think the inflation rate will be in December 2023? How about in five years? With the forceful return of inflation, inflation expectations have gained particular prominence as a critical input into how governments and central banks will chart a course of future policies to combat inflation. But not everyone necessarily agrees on what the future path of inflation will look like. We use survey data to study the extent of disagreement about inflation expectations among U.S. households, what drives this disagreement, and the potential policy implications.
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MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION IN THE PRESENCE OF LABOR MARKET POWER
Anastasia Burya, Rui Mano, Yannick Timmer and Anke Weber
What are the implications of a rapid tightening of monetary policy on the labor market? Does this depend on the extent of firms’ bargaining power over workers? These questions have risen in prominence over the last year as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates at the fastest pace in more than 40 years. Using data on 250 million online vacancy postings in the US, we study how employers’ responses to unexpected interest rates changes depend on their labor market power.
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SOVEREIGN COCOS
Juan Carlos Hatchondo, Leonardo Martinez,Yasin Kürşat Önder and Francisco Roch
Public debt levels have risen dramatically over the last two years, driven in part by governments’ large fiscal stimulus programs in response to COVID-19 and more recently by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This has elevated sovereign default risk, more severely in emerging market economies and low-income countries, triggering a wave of sovereign debt downgrades. What could governments do to mitigate the adverse effects of large shocks such as these? We study how contingent and convertible sovereign debt “CoCos” could help countries navigate difficult times.
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THE GLOBAL ECONOMY: LOOKING BACK, LOOKING FORWARD
Prachi Mishra
The IMF Research Department held the 23rd Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference on November 10-11, 2022. This year’s conference honored Maurice Obstfeld’s contributions to economic policy and research. Linda Goldberg delivered the Mundell-Fleming Lecture. Prachi Mishra gives us an overview of the lecture and other conference sessions.
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 resbulletin@IMF.org
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IMF | Research Prespectives
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