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Early Warning Systems: Fantasy or Reality?
Title of this Economic Forum was renamed to Anticipating Crises: Model Behavior or Stampeding Herds?
November 1, 2001

Since the Mexican and Asian crises, there has been a growing demand within the international community for an "Early Warning System" (EWS) to predict the onset of currency crises. But how realistic is this objective? To what extent can such models succeed where others have been found wanting? Even if we develop an "EWS" that looks as if it would have been successful in the past, can we be confident that it will still be applicable in the future? These and other questions will be addressed by the following panelists:

Carmen Reinhart, Special Advisor, IMF Research Department (Moderator)

Peter Garber, Global Strategist, Deutsche Bank

Andrew Rose, Professor, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley

Eduardo Borensztein, Chief, Developing Countries Studies Division, IMF Research Department