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IMF Primary Commodity Prices


Blog: The Price of Oil and the Price of Carbon

Rabah Arezki and Maurice Obstfeld

December 2, 2015

Fossil fuel prices are likely to stay "low for long." Low fossil fuel prices could discourage further innovation in and adoption of cleaner energy technologies. The result would be higher emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Read more >>


Blog: Sovereign Wealth Funds in the New Era of Oil

By Rabah Arezki, Adnan Mazarei, and Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Posted on October 26, 2015 by iMFdirect

As a result of the oil price plunge, the major oil-exporting countries are facing budget deficits for the first time in years. The growth in the assets of their sovereign wealth funds, which were rising at a rapid rate until recently, is now slowing; some have started drawing on their buffers. Read more >>


Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Metals in the World Economy

Rabah Arezki, Akito Matsumoto and Hongyan Zhao

from World Economic Outlook: October 2015

This special feature includes an in-depth analysis of metal markets in the world economy. It puts recent developments into perspective by documenting the dramatic demand and supply shifts over past decades and argues that the balance between demand and supply forces points to a “low-for-long” scenario in metal prices. >>


News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries

Rabah Arezki, Valerie A. Ramey and Liugang Sheng

IMF Working Paper: September 29, 2015

This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ̶ the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time. >>


Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on Investment in an Era of Low Oil Prices

Rabah Arezki, Akito Matsumoto, Shane Streifel and Hongyan Zhao

from World Economic Outlook: April 2015

Commodity prices have fallen markedly since the release of the October 2014 World Economic Outlook (WEO), led by a dramatic drop in crude oil prices driven by both supply and demand factors. Metal prices have fallen because of slowing demand growth in China and significant increases in the supply of most metals. Food prices have declined mostly on account of favorable harvests. >>


Blog: Seven Questions About the Recent Oil Price Slump

Rabah Arezki and Olivier Blanchard

December 22, 2014

Oil prices have plunged recently, affecting everyone: producers, exporters, governments, and consumers. Overall, we see this as a shot in the arm for the global economy. There is however much more to this complex and evolving story. In this blog we examine the mechanics of the oil market now and in the future, the implications for various groups of countries as well as for financial stability, and how policymakers should address the impact on their economies. >>

Prices & Forecasts

Primary Commodity Price

The Primary Commodity Price data are updated monthly.

Last update: February 04, 2016

Note: Change to natural gas price units

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Download data projections actual prices through 01/20/16

Download data projections actual prices through 12/10/15

Download data projections actual prices through 11/30/15

Price Outlook & Risks

January 2016

December 2015



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The Commodities Team of the Research Department provides information on primary commodity market developments. Questions about these tables may be directed to