Riding the Energy Transition: Oil Beyond 2040
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Summary:
Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis suggests that oil as the main fuel for transportation could have a much shorter life span left than commonly assumed. In the fast adoption scenario, oil prices could converge to the level of coal prices, about $15 per barrel in 2015 prices by the early 2040s. In this possible future, oil could become the new coal.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2017/120
Subject:
Commodities Environment National accounts Non-renewable resources Oil Oil prices Prices Renewable resources Transportation
English
Publication Date:
May 22, 2017
ISBN/ISSN:
9781484301128/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA2017120
Pages:
42
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