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Do Economists' and Financial Markets' Perspectives on the New Members of the EU Differ?

Author/Editor: Luengnaruemitchai, Pipat | Schadler, Susan
Authorized for Distribution: March 1, 2007
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: In the past several years, the ten new Central and Eastern European members of the European Union have enjoyed rapid growth but frequently alongside growing external imbalances. Economists have pointed to rising vulnerabilities, but markets compressed sovereign bond yields. This paper examines the evidence from the perspective of economists' vulnerability analysis and markets' pricing of sovereign bonds. It finds that spread are lower than can be explained by "fundamentals" and speculates on the causes and permanence of this yield compression.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 07/65
Subject(s): Emerging markets | European Union | Economic growth | Bonds | Prices | Capital markets
Author's keyword(s): New Member States | Emerging Markets | Sovereign Spreads
 
English  
    Published:   March 1, 2007        
    ISBN/ISSN:   1934-7073   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2007065   Pages:   31
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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