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Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union: Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria

Author/Editor: Rahman, Jesmin
Authorized for Distribution: April 1, 2008
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 318KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper analyzes current account (CA) developments in the following 10 new EU members states: Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. During the last 15 years, these countries, on average, have run CA deficits that are considerably higher than the average CA deficit of other developing countries. However, more recently, a diverging pattern has emerged among these countries with one group, consisting of the Baltic countries, Bulgaria and Romania, experiencing rapid widening, while the others seeing a stabilization in their CA balances. Using panel data for 59 countries, this paper empirically investigates the following three questions: Are higher average deficits in EU-10 explained by medium-term macroeconomic fundamentals? What explains the diverging CA behavior among EU-10? And finally, how challenging is it for the group experiencing rapidly widening CA deficits to reverse the trend?
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 08/92
Subject(s): Current account balances | European Union | Current account deficits | Czech Republic | Bulgaria | Estonia | Hungary | Latvia | Lithuania | Poland | Romania | Slovak Republic | Slovenia
Author's keyword(s): Current account norm; macroeconomic balance approach; European Union
 
English  
    Published:   April 1, 2008        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2008092   Pages:   34
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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