How to order
IMF Publications

Working Papers in full text
2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 All

Other research-related activities and publications of the IMF can be found at IMF Research

Free Email Notification

Receive emails when we post new items of interest to you.

Subscribe or Modify your profile

On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

Author/Editor: Deren Unalmis | Ibrahim Unalmis | D. Filiz Unsal
Authorized for Distribution: December 1, 2009
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,048KB)
Use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this PDF file.
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
Order a print copy
Series: Working Paper No. 09/285
Subject(s): Oil prices | Oil production | Demand | Supply | External shocks | Price increases | Fiscal policy | Monetary policy | Inflation targeting | Productivity | Economic models
    Published:   December 1, 2009        
    ISBN/ISSN:   9781451874303   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2009285   Pages:   338
    Price:   US$18.00
Please address any questions about this title to