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The Composition and Cyclical Behavior of Trade Flows in Emerging Economies

Author/Editor: De Bock, Reinout
Authorized for Distribution: February 1, 2010
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,089KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: Trade flows data show that the composition and cyclical properties of imports are similar in developed economies and emerging markets (EM) but this is not the case for exports. Unlike developed economies, (i) EM export few or only a selective set of capital goods and (ii) capital good and overall exports tend to be acyclical. The lack of procyclicality in exports drives the strong countercyclicality of EM trade balances observed in previous studies. A quantitative exercise demonstrates how the standard small open economy business cycle model can be improved for EM by incorporating these features.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 10/46
Subject(s): Balance of trade | Business cycles | Capital goods | Consumption | Cross country analysis | Economic models | Emerging markets | Exports | Imports | International trade | Productivity
Author's keyword(s): International business cycles; Emerging economy; Trade balance
 
English  
    Published:   February 1, 2010        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2010046   Pages:   32
    Price:   US$18.00 (Academic Rate: US$18.00 )
       
     
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