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Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy

Author/Editor: ElGanainy, Asmaa A | Weber, Anke
Authorized for Distribution: August 1, 2010
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 1,193KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia, suggesting a significant role of the output gap and inflation expectations in determining current inflation. Finally, the underlying fiscal stance over the period 2000-09 is assessed by estimating the cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance. Most of Armenia’s fiscal deficit is found to be structural. Fiscal policy, while providing counter-cyclical support in 2009, has been largely pro-cyclical in the past.
 
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Series: Working Paper No. 10/197
Subject(s): Armenia | Business cycles | Economic growth | Economic models | Fiscal policy | Inflation | Monetary policy | Production | Time series
Author's keyword(s): Armenia | potential output | Bayesian Analysis | New Keynesian Phillips Curve | Cyclically-Adjusted Balance | Fiscal Stance | Fiscal Impulse | Automatic Stabilizers
 
English  
    Published:   August 1, 2010        
            Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2010197   Pages:   45
    Price:   US$18.00
       
     
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