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Assessing Systemic Trade Interconnectedness : An Empirical Approach

Author/Editor: Alexander Massara | Luca Errico
Authorized for Distribution: September 1, 2011
Electronic Access: Free Full Text (PDF file size is 2,462KB)
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Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

Summary: The paper focuses on systemically important jurisdictions in the global trade network, complementing recent IMF work on systemically important financial sectors. Using the IMF''s Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) database and network analysis, the paper develops a framework for ranking jurisdictions based on trade size and trade interconnectedness indicators using data for 2000 and 2010. The results show a near perfect overlap between the top 25 systemically important trade and financial jurisdictions, suggesting that these ought to be the focus of risk-based surveillance on cross-border spillovers and contagion. In addition, a number of extensions to the approach are developed that can provide a better understanding of trade dynamics at the bilateral, regional, and global levels.
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Series: Working Paper No. 11/214
Subject(s): Direction of trade | Trade | Trade integration
Author's keyword(s): systemic | trade | interconnectedness | DOTS | network analysis | cross-border spillovers | contagion
    Published:   September 1, 2011        
    ISBN/ISSN:   9781463902964/1018-5941   Format:   Paper
    Stock No:   WPIEA2011214   Pages:   24
    Price:   US$18.00
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