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World Economic and Financial Surveys

World Economic Outlook (WEO)

Hopes, Realities, and Risks

April 2013

Global economic prospects have improved again, but the bumpy recovery and skewed macroeconomic policy mix in advanced economies are complicating policymaking in emerging market economies. Chapter 3 examines the prospects for inflation, particularly because inflation was remarkably stable in the wake of the Great Recession and, in fact, has become less responsive to cyclical conditions. Chapter 4 examines whether today’s fast-growing, dynamic low-income countries are likely to maintain their momentum and avoid the reversals that afflicted many such countries in the past.



Contents

Chapter 1: Global Prospects and Policies

Boxes
Chart
Chart
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Data
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Data
1.1 The Great Divergence of Policies
Chart
Chart
Data
Data
1.2 Public Debt Overhang and Private Sector Performance
Chart
Chart
Chart
Data
Data
Data
1.3 The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area
Table
1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
Figures
Chart Data 1.1 Global Indicators
Chart Data 1.2 Current and Forward-Looking Growth Indicators
Chart Data 1.3 Financial Market Conditions
Chart Data 1.4 Monetary Conditions and Bank Lending
Chart Data 1.5 Financial Conditions Index
Chart Data 1.6 Monetary Policies and Credit in Emerging Market Economies
Chart Data 1.7 Fiscal Policies
Chart Data 1.8 GDP Growth
Chart   1.9 Overheating Indicators for the G20 Economies
Chart Data 1.10 Global Inflation
Chart Data 1.11 Global Imbalances
Chart Data 1.12 Risks to the Global Outlook
Chart Data 1.13 Recession and Deflation Risks
Chart Data 1.14 Interest Rate Risk Scenarios
Chart Data 1.15 Euro Area Scenarios
Chart Data 1.16 Capacity and Credit in Emerging Market Economies
Chart Data 1.17 Emerging Market Downside Scenarios
Chart Data 1.SF.1 IMF Commodity Price Indices
Chart Data 1.SF.2 Equity and Commodity Market Volatility Indices
Chart Data 1.SF.3 Commodity Prices and Economic Activity: First Principal Components
Chart Data 1.SF.4 Energy Prices
Chart Data 1.SF.5 Crude Oil Prices and SVAR Model
Chart Data 1.SF.6 Oil Market Prospects
Chart Data 1.SF.7 Oil Market Buffers
Chart Data 1.SF.8 IMF Food Price Indices
Chart Data 1.SF.9 Food Prices and Inventories
Chart Data 1.SF.10 Metals: Prices, Demand, and Prospects
Chart Data 1.SF.11 Declining Predictive Content of Commodity Futures Prices

Chapter 2: Country and Regional Perspectives

Tables
2.1 Selected European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.2 Selected Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.3 Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.4 Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.5 Selected Middle East and North African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
2.6 Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment
Figures
Chart Data 2.1 World: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts
Chart Data 2.2 Europe: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts
Chart Data 2.3 Advanced Europe: Diminished Crisis Risks amid Prolonged Stagnation
Chart Data 2.4 Emerging Europe: A Gradual Recovery from 2012 Slowdown
Chart Data 2.5 United States and Canada: Slow but Steady Recovery
Chart Data 2.6 United States: Fiscal Developments
Chart Data 2.7 Asia: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts
Chart Data 2.8 Asia: Stabilization, Recovery, and Accommodative Policies
Chart Data 2.9 Latin America and the Caribbean: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts
Chart Data 2.10 Latin America: Growth Supported by Easy Financing Conditions
Chart Data 2.11 Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts
Chart Data 2.12 Middle East and North Africa: Narrowing Differences in a Two-Speed Region
Chart Data 2.13 Commonwealth of Independent States: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts
Chart Data 2.14 Commonwealth of Independent States: An Improving Outlook with Vulnerability to Global Slowdown
Chart Data 2.15 Sub-Saharan Africa: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts
Chart Data 2.16 Sub-Saharan Africa: Continued Resilience
Chart Data 2.SF.1 Policy Uncertainty in the United States and Europe
Chart Data 2.SF.2 General Uncertainty and Confidence in the United States and Europe
Chart Data 2.SF.3 Effect of U.S. or European Policy Uncertainty Shock on Real GDP in Other Regions
Chart Data 2.SF.4 Growth Impact of U.S. and European Policy Uncertainty Shocks
Chart Data 2.SF.5 Effect of a U.S. or European Policy Uncertainty Shock on Real Investment in Other Regions
Chart Data 2.SF.6 Peak Effect of U.S. and European Policy Uncertainty Shock on Real GDP, Consumption, and Investment in Other Regions

Chapter 3: The Dog That Didn't Bark: Has Inflation Been Muzzled or Was It Just Sleeping?

Box
3.1 Inflation Targeting Still Makes Sense with a Flatter Phillips Curve?
Figures
Chart Data 3.1 The Behavior of Inflation Has Changed
Chart Data 3.2 Measures of Current Economic Slack
Chart Data 3.3 Current Headline Inflation Compared with Expectations
Chart Data 3.4 Rolling Regressions of Inflation Expectations over Actual Inflation
Chart Data 3.5 Inflation and Cyclical Unemployment
Chart Data 3.6 Changes in the Inflation Process
Chart Data 3.7 Robustness to Alternative Estimates of the NAIRU
Chart Data 3.8 Actual and Predicted Inflation in the United States
Chart Data 3.9 Unemployment and Inflation in Selected Economies
Chart Data 3.10 Headline Inflation in the United States and Germany

Chapter 4: Breaking through the Frontier: Can Today's Dynamic Low-Income Countries Make It?

Tables
4.1 Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries, 1990– 2011
4.2 Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries before 1990
4.3 Crises and the Ends of Growth Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries, 1970–2011
4.4 Explaining Growth Takeoffs in Dynamic Developing Economies
4.5 Data Sources
4.6 Economy Groups
4.7 Logistic Regression Robustness to Alternative Specifications and Definition
4.8 Logistic Regression Robustness to Alternative Estimation Methods, Full Sample
Figures
Chart Data 4.1 Economic Performance of Low-Income Countries and Others
Chart Data 4.2 Frequency of New and Ongoing Takeoffs in Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.3 The Global Environment behind Low-Income Countries’ Growth Takeoffs
Chart Data 4.4 Real Output per Capita after Takeoff in Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.5 Economic Structure and Real Output per Capita after Takeoff in Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.6 Investment and Financing in Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.7 Macroeconomic Conditions in Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.8 External Competitiveness, Export Growth, and Diversification in Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.9 Structural Reforms, Infrastructure, and Political Conditions in Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.10 Investment and Financing across the Spectrum of Today’s Dynamic Low- Income Countries
Chart Data 4.11 Contributors to the Changing Likelihood of a Growth Takeoff in Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.12 Brazil’s and Korea’s Growth Experience during 1960–90
Chart Data 4.13 Indonesia’s Growth Experience since the 1960s
Chart Data 4.14 Mozambique’s Growth Experience since the 1990s
Chart Data 4.15 Cambodia’s Growth Experience since the 1990s
Chart Data 4.16 Macroeconomic Conditions for Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries
Chart Data 4.17 Aid and FDI Flows to Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries

Statistical Appendix

Text (Download PDF)
Assumptions
What's New
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification
Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2011
Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup
Table C. European Union
Table D. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings
Table E. Emerging and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies
 
List of Tables Part A (Download PDF)
A1. Summary of World Output
A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand
A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP
A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
A5. Summary of Inflation
A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices
A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt
A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices
A10. Summary of Balances on Current Account
A11. Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account
A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account
A13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Net Financial Flows
A14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Private Financial Flows
A15. Summary of Sources and Uses of World Savings
A16. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario
 
List of Tables Part B (Download PDF - available on the web only)
B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real per Capita GDP
B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing
B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
B5. Summary of Financial Indicators
B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Excluding Social Security Schemes
B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances
B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance
B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/Borrowing
B10. Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates
B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates
B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services
B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods
B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods
B15. Advanced Economies: Current Account Transactions
B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balances on Current Account
B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Current Account Transactions
B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Current Account Transactions
B19. Summary of Balance of Payments, Financial Flows, and External Financing
B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Balance of Payments and External Financing
B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Balance of Payments and External Financing
B22. Summary of External Debt and Debt Service
B23. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity and Type of Creditor
B24. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt, by Maturity and Type of Creditor
B25. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP
B26. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios
B27. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators
 
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics
 
IMF WEO Report cover

©2013 International Monetary Fund

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