IMF Regional Office
for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe
Geoff Gottlieb
Senior Resident Representative
Email: ggottlieb@imf.org
37C Zielna, 00-108
Warszawa, Poland
Tel: + 48 (22) 338 67 00
IMF Resident Representative Offices in Central and Eastern Europe
Regional Economic Outlook
Regional Economic Outlook for Europe (REO)
October 2022
Russia’s war in Ukraine is taking a growing toll on Europe’s economies. The worsening energy crisis has depressed households’ purchasing power and raised firms’ costs, only partly offset by new government support. Central banks have acted more forcefully to bring high and persistent inflation down to targets, and financial conditions have tightened. Abroad, growth has softened in China and the United States, and multidecade-high inflation has led to broad-based global monetary policy tightening. Against this backdrop, the European outlook has darkened considerably, with growth set to slow sharply and inflation to remain elevated. Output growth in advanced and emerging European economies(excluding conflict countries and Türkiye) is forecast to fall from 3.2 and 4.3 percent in 2022, respectively, to 0.6 and 1.7 percent in 2023—0.7 and 1.1 percentage points lower than the July 2022 World Economic Outlook Update projections. Output losses will be very large in the conflict countries. While projected to decline in 2023, headline inflation will stay significantly above central bank objectives, at 6.2 and 11.8 percent in advanced and emerging European economies, respectively.
Read the full report (PDF)
News and Highlights
Op-Ed: Four Criteria for Fighting the Energy Crisis, by Geoff Gottlieb and Krzysztof Krogulksi, November 7, 2022. Orginally published in Polish.
IMF Paper: Reassessing the Role of State-Owned Enterprises in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe, June 18, 2019
Video: Around a Decade After the Crisis: Heading to the New Global Cycle and Monetary Policy Normalization - April 12-13, 2018
Video: KEF Economic Forum Minsk: Belarus and the IMF - November, 2, 2017
Video: CEE: Setting the Scene: the Global Economy in 2017 - January 19, 2017
Presentations
2019
Reassessing the Role of State Ownership in Central, Eastern, and South Eastern Europe, by IMF European Department Staff & EBRD Staff - Launch of the IMF report, Warsaw, June 18, 2019
2018
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition?, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar, Vienna, June 13, 2018
Regional Economic Outlook and Regional Economic Issues – Focus on CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar, Vienna, June 13, 2018
Low Employment and GDP in the Balkans, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - The Future of the Welfare State in the Western Balkans, Belgrade, June, 2018
Phoenix from the Ashes: The Recovery of the Baltics from the 2008/09 Crisis, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies and Stockholm School of Economics Riga Seminar, May 29, 2018
Capital Flows: Prospects and Risks for the Region, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia, 7th Annual Research Conference, Ohrid, Macedonia, April, 2018
Capital Markets Union and the EU CEE New Member States, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Eurofi High Level Seminar Sofia, April 26, 2018
CESEE: Recent Economic Developments and Prospects, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Vienna Full Forum, London, March 12, 2018
Deleveraging and Credit Monitor Update, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Vienna Full Forum, London, March 12, 2018
Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe: The Past and Future of Convergence, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - LSE SU Emgerging Markets Forum, London, March 10, 2018
Why Have Some CESEE Countries Done Better Than Others since Early Transition, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar, Vienna, February 27, 2018
Regional Economic Outlook and Regional Economic Issues, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - IMF Macroeconomic Policy Seminar, Vienna, February 26, 2018
The Future of Growth in CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Presentation at EBRD, London, February 13, 2018
The Slowdown of Potential Growth in the Western Balkans: Causes and Implications, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Informal Seminar with International Financial Institutions on Economic Developments and Reforms in the Candidate Countries and Potential Candidates, Brussels, January 31, 2018
Tightening Labor Markets, Inflation and Growth Sustainability, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - RBI Panel, The Central and Eastern European Forum, Vienna, January 16, 2018
Uncertain Times: Geo-politics, Trade and Rate Cycles in 2017, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - RBI Panel, The Central and Eastern European Forum, Vienna, January 15, 2018
2017
Macroeconomic Challenges in CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Access to Finance, Bank Lending and the Banking Sectors in CESEE Countries, Prishtina, November 14, 2017
Opportunities and Risks for Western Balkans, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Bank of Albania Annual Conference, Tirana, November 9, 2017
Belarus: Still in Need of Transition, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - KEF 2017, November 3, 2017
Belarus and the IMF, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - KEF 2017, November 2, 2017
Unconventional Monetary Policy and CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - 7th Annual NBP Conference on the Future of the European Economy, Warsaw, October 20, 2017
Western Balkans: The Road to Prosperity, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - 6th Annual Summit100, Skopje, October 12, 2017
State Involvement and Economic Growth, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - 27th Economic Forum, Krynica, September 11, 2017
Belarussian Economy: Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - 7th Belarus Reality Check, Vilnus, June 21, 2017
Fiscal Policy and Growth Challenges in SEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Becici, June 17, 2017
The IMF and Eastern Europe, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Warsaw University of Technology, June 13, 2017
Macroprudential Policy Dimensions - Cyclical vs. Structural, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - NBP-OeNB Macroprudential Workshop, Krakow, June 9, 2017
The IMF, CESEE and Banking, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - 34th BACEE Regional Banking Conference, Budapest, April 10-11, 2017
Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - 5th Regional Meeting of Governors, Umag, March 30-31, 2017
CESEE Economic Outlook, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Vienna Initiative Plenary Meeting, Luxembourg, March 6, 2017
Update on Foreign Banks Deleveraging, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Vienna Initiative Plenary Meeting, Luxembourg, March 6, 2017
Investment Dynamics in Poland, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Presentation of EIB report, Warsaw, February 27, 2017
Regional Economic Issues in CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Vienna, February 8, 2017
Global Economy in 2017, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - The Central and Eastern European Forum, Vienna, January 17, 2017
Belarus and the IMF, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - JVI Course - Financial Programming and Policies - Raubichi, January 25, 2017
2016
Main Risks for Belarussian Economy and Prospects for Belarus-IMF cooperation, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Workshop “Economic Environment for Businesses”, Minsk, December 14, 2016
CESEE: Remaining challenges for faster growth, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - SITE Academic Conference, Stockholm, December 5-6, 2016
Economic and Financial Issues in CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Vienna, November 28, 2016
Phoenix from the Ashes: The Recovery of the Baltics from the 2008/09 Crisis, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - CASE Conference, Warsaw, November 18, 2016
CESEE Regional Economic Outlook, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Minsk, November 3, 2016
Western Balkans in Post-Brexit Europe, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Bank of Albania & SEESOX annual conference, Tirana, October 27, 2016
CESEE and EU: Closing the remaining gaps, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - 26th Economic Forum in Krynica, Krynica, September 6, 2016
Cross Country Differences in Convergence in CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Conference "Traces of Transition: Unfinished Business 25 Years Down the Road," Stockholm, May 27, 2016
CESEE Main Economic Issues, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Regional Resident Representative - Commerzbank CEEMEA Day, London, May 20, 2016
A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - European Bank Co-ordination (Vienna) Initiative: Third Ukrainian Financial Forum, Kiev, March 15, 2016
Key Economic Issues in CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Regional Resident Representative - Parliamentary Workshop, Vienna, March 2, 2016
Challenges for Baltics as for the Eurozone countries having Advanced Economy status, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Regional Resident Representative - 4th European High-level Panel Discussion on Banking, Vilnius, February 4, 2016
Economic Outlook for 2016, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - The Central and Eastern European Forum, Vienna, January 19, 2016
World Bank Global Economic Prospects - Some comments, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - National Bank of Poland, Warsaw, January 11, 2016
2015
Belarus Macroeconomic Performance, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - Economy of Belarus: At a Tipping Point Conference, Minsk, November 4, 2015
Convergence of the EU new members states: Past, Present and Future, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - NBP-OeNB CEEI/CFEE Conference, Warsaw, October 16, 2015
Eurozone banks and Growth in CESEE, by Bas B. Bakker, Senior Resident Representative - The Fourth EU-Southeast Europe Summit, Sofia, October 15, 2015
2014
Recovery at risk? - CEE external vulnerability, by James Roaf, Senior Resident Representative - CASE, Warsaw, May 27, 2014
CESEE economies: Outlook and challenges, by James Roaf, Senior Resident Representative, Zagreb, May 23, 2014
CEE Economies After a Decade in the EU, by James Roaf, Senior Resident Representative, Warsaw, April 9, 2014
IMF Activities in Central and Eastern Europe
Albania | Belarus | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Bulgaria | Croatia | Czech Republic | Estonia | Hungary | Kosovo | Latvia | Lithuania | Moldova | Montenegro | North Macedonia | Poland | Romania | Serbia | Slovenia | Slovak Republic | Ukraine |
About Us
The IMF Regional Office in Warsaw was established in February 2005, succeeding the Resident Representative office for Poland. Its primary task is to enhance the IMF's ability to carry out surveillance in Central and Eastern Europe, including with regard to financial stability, economic convergence and integration, and the jobs and growth agenda.
To this end, the Regional Office:
- complements the work of headquarter-based mission teams by focusing on post-crisis issues across the region;
- cooperates with regional partners within the Vienna 2 Initiative framework for safeguarding financial stability in the region;
- monitors and analyzes economic developments from a regional perspective, identifies policy issues, and informs the IMF's staff at headquarters;
- maintains contacts with governments, civil society and other relevant institutions (such as the European Commission and the ECB);
- provides information to the media and other interested groups about the IMF's economic analysis and policy advice in the region.
