## $name _IMF Seminars, January 1, 1901_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [$name](https://www.imf.org/ru/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/ru/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/ru/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/ru/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: January 1, 1901 --- ### Event overview and central concern - The event was a JOINT HIGH-LEVEL CONFERENCE BY THE BRAZILIAN AUTHORITIES AND THE IMF, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, MAY 26-27, 2011. - Central analytical theme: Несинхронность и расходящаяся динамика восстановления могут поставить финансовую стабильность под угрозу — asynchronous and divergent recovery dynamics can threaten financial stability. - Framing: Capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) resumed after the sharp decline following the global financial crisis and are projected to remain high, although volatile, in the coming years. - Key risks highlighted: - Many flows may reflect interest rate differentials that could be at least partially reversed when policy interest rates in advanced economies (AEs) return to more normal levels. - A rapid reversal could occur if the global recovery falters and there is a renewed increase in global risk aversion. - A history of "sudden stop" episodes suggests caution before interpreting recent inflows as a "structural break." - Large inflows can lead to exchange rate appreciation pressures or overshooting, some loss of monetary policy independence, and costly reallocation of productive resources if inflows are temporary. - Sudden surges can overwhelm domestic prudential frameworks and fuel asset price bubbles rather than finance productive investment. ### Objectives and policy questions - Conference objective: Provide senior officials and academics an opportunity to debate root causes of the pickup in capital flows to EMEs, their impact, and appropriate policy responses. - Core policy questions: - What determines surges and volatility of capital inflows? - What role have macroeconomic policies in the U.S. and other advanced countries played? - Are there differences between types of flows? - Do recent inflows represent a structural “new normal” or reflect a failure to rebalance the global economy? - How should theoretical benefits of capital flows be weighed against macroeconomic challenges and risks (diminished competitiveness, inflation and overheating, asset price bubbles/financial fragilities)? - How does experience differ by country characteristics (exchange rate regime, fiscal institutions, quality of domestic supervision/regulation)? - What is the policy hierarchy among macroeconomic, macroprudential, and capital control tools? - To what extent should broader systemic consequences of policy instruments be factored into country choices? ### Suggested policy elements and considerations - A policy response to a surge in capital inflows may need to include both macroeconomic and prudential elements. - Considerations emphasized: - Use of macroeconomic policies to manage exchange rate pressures and overheating. - Deployment of macroprudential measures to strengthen domestic prudential frameworks and limit asset price bubbles. - Calibration and role of capital controls as part of the policy toolkit. - Assessment of country-specific characteristics when choosing policy mixes (exchange rate regime, fiscal institutions, supervision/regulation quality). - Recognition of potential temporary nature of inflows and the costs of reversal. ### Program and agenda highlights (May 26–27, 2011) - Venue: Caesar Park Hotel, Rio de Janeiro. - Registration and keynote elements: - Lunch speaker: Guido Mantega, Minister of Finance of Brazil. - Introductory remarks: Alexandre Tombini, Governor, Banco Central do Brasil; Min Zhu, Special Advisor to the MD, IMF. - SESSION I — The Causes of the Recent Wave of Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies - Chair: Cristiano Romero, Valor Economico. - Speakers: Joyce Chang, JP Morgan Chase; José Antonio Ocampo, Columbia University; Eduardo Loyo, BTG Pactual; Hyun Song Shin, Princeton University. - Focus: behavior of capital flows, determinants of surges and volatility, role of AE policies, distinctions across flow types, structural vs cyclical interpretations. - SESSION II — Capital Inflows: Blessing or Curse? - Chair: Stephanie Flanders, BBC. - Speakers and contributions: Paulo Nogueira Batista, Executive Director, IMF; Nicolás Eyzaguirre, IMF; Roberto Frenkel, University of Buenos Aires; John Williamson, Peterson Institute for International Economics. - Focus: transmission channels to real and financial sectors, weighing benefits against risks (competitiveness loss, inflation, overheating, asset bubbles), cross-country differences by institutional characteristics. - Dinner speaker: Jagdish Bhagwati, Columbia University. - SESSION III — How Should EMEs Manage Rapid Inflows? - Chair: Zanny Minton-Beddoes, The Economist. - Speakers: Kristin Forbes, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Jonathan D. Ostry, IMF; Subir Vithal Gokarn, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India; Olivier Jeanne, Johns Hopkins University. - Policy Forum: Regional Perspectives on Managing Capital Inflows - Moderator: Adriana Arai, Bloomberg. - Panelists: José De Gregorio, Governor, Central Bank of Chile; Turalay Kenç, Vice Governor, Central Bank of Turkey; José Uribe, Governor, Banco de la Republica de Colombia; Atchana Waiquamdee, Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand. - Tentative Conclusions: Nelson Barbosa Filho, Exec. Sec., Min. of Finance, Brazil, and Olivier Blanchard, IMF. - Adjournment followed by a press briefing. - Attendance: by invitation only. --- ## Content in this bundle - [021411apdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/pp/eng/2011/_021411apdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Awpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_awpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Hsspdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_hsspdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jaopdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jaopdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jcpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jcpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jdupdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jdupdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jgpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jgpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jopdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jopdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Kfpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_kfpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Ne2pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_ne2pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Nepdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_nepdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Ojpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_ojpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Programpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_programpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Rf2pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_rf2pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Rfpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_rfpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Sgpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_sgpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Tkpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_tkpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Sdn1106pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/_sdn1106pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Sdn1107pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/_sdn1107pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Sdn1110pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/_sdn1110pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Spn1004pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/pubs/ft/spn/2010/_spn1004pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Glossaryr (PDF)](/external/np/term/rus/pdf/glossaryr.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Несинхронность и расходящаяся динамика восстановления могут поставить финансовую стабильность под угрозу](https://www.imf.org/ru/News/Articles/2021/04/06/blog-an-asynchronous-and-divergent-recovery-may-put-financial-stability-at-risk) _Source: https://www.imf.org/ru/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets_