{ "title": "贫穷和脆弱国家需要支持以适应气候变化", "publication": "IMF Blog, March 23, 2022", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/zh/blogs/articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/zh/blogs/articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change", "overlayPath": "/zh/blogs/articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change/index.md", "summary": "最贫穷的国家面临着气候变化带来的最大风险，需要国际社会为其适应气候变化提供资金支持。", "sections": [ { "heading": "摘要与主要论点", "content": "- 最贫穷的国家面临着气候变化带来的最大风险，需要国际社会为其适应气候变化提供资金支持。\n- 适应气候变化应对的风险包括保护农业、管理海平面上升的影响、提高基础设施韧性等。\n- 精心制定的适应政策可以产生巨大的回报，但适应不能替代减缓气候变化的措施；若不稳定全球气温，适应成本将变得异常高昂。" }, { "heading": "适应气候变化的经济影响与成本", "content": "- 全球公共部门未来几十年每年用于适应气候变化的成本将达到全球GDP的0.25%。\n- 我们估计，在未来10年，大约50个低收入和发展中经济体的公共部门每年所需要的适应气变资金将超过其GDP的1%。\n- 对遭受热带气旋和海平面上升影响的小型岛屿国家来说，成本可能更高，将达到GDP的20%。\n- 投资于抗灾能力和应对机制能够带来长期效益，且在财务上往往优于灾后救助和重建的成本。" }, { "heading": "受益案例与地区差异", "content": "- 撒哈拉以南非洲特别脆弱：全世界三分之一的干旱发生于该地区，因其农业依赖雨水灌溉，特别容易受到气温上升和极端天气的影响。\n- 研究表明，仅一次干旱就可以使一个非洲国家的中期经济增长潜力下降1个百分点。\n- 成功案例：\n - 埃塞俄比亚：抗锈病小麦品种的开发使一些农民的小麦产量提高了40%。\n - 加纳：可可种植户通过改良种子和改善灌溉，以及种植树木遮挡阳光，提高了作物的抗旱性。" }, { "heading": "对贫穷和脆弱国家的政策建议（国际社会与发展伙伴）", "content": "- 提供资金支持和提高机构能力，帮助这些国家实施适应计划。\n- 确保气候融资对现有援助形成补充，并简化资金使用条件，使之与受援国的机构能力相符。\n - 例：冗长而复杂的要求阻碍了太平洋岛国直接使用国际气候基金。\n- 将适应气候变化与推动具有韧性的增长和其他可持续发展目标充分结合，优先进行前期的预防性投资。\n- 针对发展伙伴：在财务层面，投资气候韧性是有效的，因为前期的预防投资可能低于灾难后的救助与重建成本。" }, { "heading": "IMF的作用与正在开展的工作", "content": "- IMF发布了三篇关于气候适应和财政政策、宏观财政影响、以及将气候适应纳入主流财政规划的论文，以补充世界银行、政府间气候变化专门委员会和其他国际组织的工作。\n- IMF在其年度第四条磋商及跨国研究中分析各地区和国家在适应气候变化中面临的挑战（示例：马尔代夫、刚果共和国、多米尼加；地区：撒哈拉以南非洲、西半球、亚太地区）。\n- 扩大能力建设支持，包括：\n - 气候宏观经济评估规划\n - 以气候为重点的公共投资管理评估\n - 绿色公共财政管理\n- 与成员国和合作伙伴一道，制定融资方案（如所建议的韧性和可持续性信托），将拥有较强外部头寸国家的资金引导至脆弱国家，为其提供可负担的长期融资，帮助受援国通过政策改革促进国际收支稳定以应对结构性挑战（包括气候变化）。" }, { "heading": "结论要点", "content": "- 现在投资于具有韧性的增长并将适应气候变化纳入发展战略，比以往任何时候都更加重要。\n- 仅靠适应不足以应对气候风险；必须同时实施强有力的减缓措施以稳定全球气温，避免适应成本失控。\n- 支持贫穷和脆弱国家适应气候变化既是道义责任，也是全球与发展伙伴的经济理性选择。\n\n来源: https://www.imf.org/zh/blogs/articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- 1domea2019001\n - 1domea2019001 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 1domea2019001 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- fpaccapea\n - fpaccapea (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - fpaccapea (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary and Policy Implications\n - Executive Summary and Policy Implications (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary and Policy Implications (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ppea2021076\n - ppea2021076 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ppea2021076 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary (ch1)\n - Executive Summary (ch1) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (ch1) (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Sub‑Saharan Africa — October 2021 (selected excerpts)\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Sub‑Saharan Africa — October 2021 (selected excerpts) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Sub‑Saharan Africa — October 2021 (selected excerpts) (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2021 (chapter excerpts)\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2021 (chapter excerpts) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2021 (chapter excerpts) (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- clnea2021002\n - clnea2021002 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - clnea2021002 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- 气候变化\n- 气候适应和财政政策\n- 宏观财政影响\n- 将气候适应纳入主流\n- 埃塞俄比亚\n- 适应\n- 小型岛屿国家\n- 马尔代夫\n- 刚果共和国\n- 韧性和可持续性信托\n- Kristalina Georgieva\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/zh/blogs/articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/zh/blogs/articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/zh/blogs/articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/zh/blogs/articles/2022/03/23/blog032322-poor-and-vulnerable-countris-need-support-to-adapt-to-climate-change/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Kristalina Georgieva, Vitor Gaspar, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu", "Published: March 23, 2022", "最贫穷的国家面临着气候变化带来的最大风险，需要国际社会为其适应气候变化提供资金支持。", "适应气候变化应对的风险包括保护农业、管理海平面上升的影响、提高基础设施韧性等。", "精心制定的适应政策可以产生巨大的回报，但适应不能替代减缓气候变化的措施；若不稳定全球气温，适应成本将变得异常高昂。", "全球公共部门未来几十年每年用于适应气候变化的成本将达到全球GDP的0.25%。", "我们估计，在未来10年，大约50个低收入和发展中经济体的公共部门每年所需要的适应气变资金将超过其GDP的1%。", "对遭受热带气旋和海平面上升影响的小型岛屿国家来说，成本可能更高，将达到GDP的20%。", "投资于抗灾能力和应对机制能够带来长期效益，且在财务上往往优于灾后救助和重建的成本。", "撒哈拉以南非洲特别脆弱：全世界三分之一的干旱发生于该地区，因其农业依赖雨水灌溉，特别容易受到气温上升和极端天气的影响。", "研究表明，仅一次干旱就可以使一个非洲国家的中期经济增长潜力下降1个百分点。", "成功案例：", "提供资金支持和提高机构能力，帮助这些国家实施适应计划。", "确保气候融资对现有援助形成补充，并简化资金使用条件，使之与受援国的机构能力相符。", "将适应气候变化与推动具有韧性的增长和其他可持续发展目标充分结合，优先进行前期的预防性投资。", "针对发展伙伴：在财务层面，投资气候韧性是有效的，因为前期的预防投资可能低于灾难后的救助与重建成本。", "IMF发布了三篇关于气候适应和财政政策、宏观财政影响、以及将气候适应纳入主流财政规划的论文，以补充世界银行、政府间气候变化专门委员会和其他国际组织的工作。", "IMF在其年度第四条磋商及跨国研究中分析各地区和国家在适应气候变化中面临的挑战（示例：马尔代夫、刚果共和国、多米尼加；地区：撒哈拉以南非洲、西半球、亚太地区）。", "扩大能力建设支持，包括：", "与成员国和合作伙伴一道，制定融资方案（如所建议的韧性和可持续性信托），将拥有较强外部头寸国家的资金引导至脆弱国家，为其提供可负担的长期融资，帮助受援国通过政策改革促进国际收支稳定以应对结构性挑战（包括气候变化）。", "现在投资于具有韧性的增长并将适应气候变化纳入发展战略，比以往任何时候都更加重要。", "仅靠适应不足以应对气候风险；必须同时实施强有力的减缓措施以稳定全球气温，避免适应成本失控。", "支持贫穷和脆弱国家适应气候变化既是道义责任，也是全球与发展伙伴的经济理性选择。", "**1domea2019001**", "**fpaccapea**", "**Executive Summary and Policy Implications**", "**ppea2021076**", "**Executive Summary (ch1)**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Sub‑Saharan Africa — October 2021 (selected excerpts)**", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere — October 2021 (chapter excerpts)**", "**clnea2021002**", "[气候变化](https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change)", "[气候适应和财政政策](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/staff-climate-notes/Issues/2022/03/10/Economic-Principles-for-Integrating-Adaptation-to-Climate-Change-into-Fiscal-Policy-464314)", "[宏观财政影响](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/staff-climate-notes/Issues/2022/03/16/Macro-Fiscal-Implications-of-Adaptation-to-Climate-Change-512769)", "[将气候适应纳入主流](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/staff-climate-notes/Issues/2022/03/16/Planning-and-Mainstreaming-Adaptation-to-Climate-Change-in-Fiscal-Policy-512776)", "[埃塞俄比亚](https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/books/086/28915-9781513536835-en/ch02.xml)", "[适应](https://www.imf.org/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/09/climate-change-what-is-mitigation-and-adaptation-behsudi-basics)", "[小型岛屿国家](https://www.imf.org/Publications/fandd/issues/2021/09/maldives-climate-change-aminath-shauna-trenches)", "[马尔代夫](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/04/23/Enhancing-Resilience-to-Climate-Change-in-the-Maldives-50293)", "[刚果共和国](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/10/05/Republic-of-Congo-Selected-Issues-482025)", "[韧性和可持续性信托](https://blogs.imf.org/2022/01/20/a-new-trust-to-help-countries-build-resilience-and-sustainability/)", "[Kristalina Georgieva](https://www.imf.org/en/About/senior-officials/Bios/kristalina-georgieva)" ], "related": [ { "title": "1domea2019001", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1domea2019001.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1domea2019001.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/cr/2019/1domea2019001.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "fpaccapea", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/dp/2021/english/fpaccapea.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/dp/2021/english/fpaccapea.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/dp/2021/english/fpaccapea.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary and Policy Implications", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/dp/2021/english/uacfpicea.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/dp/2021/english/uacfpicea.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": 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