## $name _IMF Seminars, January 1, 1901_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [$name](https://www.imf.org/zh/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/zh/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/zh/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/zh/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: January 1, 1901 --- ### Event overview - Event: JOINT HIGH-LEVEL CONFERENCE BY THE BRAZILIAN AUTHORITIES AND THE IMF - Location: RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL - Dates: MAY 26-27, 2011 - Organizer: Brazilian authorities and the IMF - Attendance: by invitation only - Contact: Email: ManagingCapitalFlows2011@imf.org ### Motivation and central questions - Capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) have resumed since the sharp decline after the global financial crisis and are projected to remain high, although volatile, in the coming years. - Benefits of capital mobility cited: - Attract financing for productive investment projects in countries with limited savings. - Foster diversification of investment risk. - Contribute to the development of financial markets. - Concerns highlighted: - Procyclical behavior of the financial sector can contribute to boom-bust cycles and fragility. - Many flows may reflect interest rate differentials that could be partially reversed when policy interest rates in advanced economies (AEs) return to more normal levels. - Rapid reversal if the global recovery falters or global risk aversion rises. - Historical "sudden stop" episodes counsel caution before interpreting current inflows as a "structural break." - Large inflows can complicate macroeconomic policy management, leading to exchange rate appreciation pressures or overshooting and loss of monetary policy independence. - Temporary inflows can entail costly reallocation of productive resources back to the tradable sector when inflows subside. - Sudden surges can overwhelm domestic prudential frameworks and fuel asset price bubbles rather than finance productive investment. - Policy implication: A response to a surge in capital inflows may need to include both macroeconomic and prudential elements. ### Conference structure and program highlights - Venue: Caesar Park Hotel, Rio de Janeiro - Opening speakers and remarks: - Lunch speaker: Guido Mantega, Minister of Finance of Brazil - Introductory Remarks: Alexandre Tombini, Governor, Banco Central do Brasil; Min Zhu, Special Advisor to the MD, IMF - Speech sessions and multiple presentations across two days - SESSION I — The Causes of the Recent Wave of Capital Inflows to Emerging Market Economies - Focus: behavior of capital flows; determinants of surges and volatility; role of macroeconomic policies in the U.S. and other AEs; differences between types of flows; whether the surge is a "new normal" or reflects global imbalances. - Chair: Cristiano Romero, Valor Economico - Speakers: Joyce Chang, JP Morgan Chase; José Antonio Ocampo, Columbia University; Eduardo Loyo, BTG Pactual; Hyun Song Shin, Princeton University - SESSION II — Capital Inflows: Blessing or Curse? - Focus: impacts on EMEs through real and financial channels; trade-offs between benefits and risks (diminished competitiveness, inflation and overheating, asset price bubbles/financial fragilities); role of country characteristics (exchange rate regime, fiscal institutions, quality of domestic supervision/regulation). - Chair: Stephanie Flanders, BBC - Speakers and contributors: Paulo Nogueira Batista, Executive Director, IMF; Nicolás Eyzaguirre, IMF; Roberto Frenkel, University of Buenos Aires; John Williamson, Peterson Institute for International Economics - Dinner speaker: Jagdish Bhagwati, Colombia University - SESSION III — How Should EMEs Manage Rapid Inflows? - Focus: policy options for managing inflows and their impacts—macroeconomic policies; macroprudential policy; capital controls; policy hierarchy among tools and systemic consequences of instruments. - Chair: Zanny Minton-Beddoes, The Economist - Speakers: Kristin Forbes, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Jonathan D. Ostry, IMF; Subir Vithal Gokarn, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India; Olivier Jeanne, Johns Hopkins University - Policy Forum: Regional Perspectives on Managing Capital Inflows - Moderator: Adriana Arai, Bloomberg - Panelists: José De Gregorio, Governor, Central Bank of Chile; Turalay Kenç, Vice Governor, Central Bank of Turkey; José Uribe, Governor, Banco de la Republica de Colombia; Atchana Waiquamdee, Deputy Governor, Bank of Thailand - Tentative Conclusions: - Nelson Barbosa Filho, Exec. Sec., Min. of Finance, Brazil, and Olivier Blanchard, IMF ### Key themes and policy takeaways emphasized by the event - Need to assess whether capital inflows are structural or cyclical, given historical experience with sudden stops. - Importance of integrating macroeconomic (e.g., exchange rate, monetary policy) and prudential measures to manage inflows and mitigate financial stability risks. - Consideration of country-specific characteristics (exchange rate regime, fiscal institutions, supervisory capacity) when designing policy responses. - Recognition that capital controls, macroprudential tools, and conventional macroeconomic policy each have roles and trade-offs; the relative priority among them is a core policy question. --- ## Content in this bundle - [021411apdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/pp/eng/2011/_021411apdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Awpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_awpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Hsspdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_hsspdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jaopdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jaopdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jcpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jcpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jdupdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jdupdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jgpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jgpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Jopdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_jopdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Kfpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_kfpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Ne2pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_ne2pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Nepdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_nepdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Ojpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_ojpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Programpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_programpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Rf2pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_rf2pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Rfpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_rfpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Sgpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_sgpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Tkpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/rio/pdf/_tkpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Sdn1106pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/_sdn1106pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Sdn1107pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/_sdn1107pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Sdn1110pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/_sdn1110pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - [Spn1004pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-events/external/pubs/ft/spn/2010/_spn1004pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- _Source: https://www.imf.org/zh/news/seminars/conferences/2016/12/31/managing-capital-flows-in-emerging-markets_