Figure 2.5. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth and Consumption,,,,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,
1. Impact on Real GDP Growth (Regression coefficients),,,,,,,,,,,
,t,t + 1,t + 2,t + 3,t + 4,t + 5,t + 6,,,,
All Countries,0.0751,-0.0365,-0.1222,-0.2021,-0.2469,-0.2264,-0.1933,,,,
Advanced Economies,0.0456,-0.0215,-0.0971,-0.1839,-0.2449,-0.236,-0.1752,,,,
Emerging Market Economies,0.1101,-0.0457,-0.1066,-0.1172,-0.0741,-0.0236,-0.0843,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,
2. Impact on Real Consumption Growth (Regression coefficients),,,,,,,,,,,
,t,t + 1,t + 2,t + 3,t + 4,t + 5,t + 6,,,,
All Countries,0.2313,0.0463,-0.1408,-0.2666,-0.2773,-0.2198,-0.1852,,,,
Advanced Economies,0.2422,0.1092,-0.0673,-0.2098,-0.2739,-0.2503,-0.1908,,,,
Emerging Market Economies,0.1425,-0.0419,-0.1581,-0.2156,-0.0967,0.033,-0.0221,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,
3. Impact on Unemployment (Regression coefficients),,,,,,,,,,,
,t,t + 1,t + 2,t + 3,t + 4,t + 5,t + 6,,,,
All Countries,-0.0229,0.0347,0.0831,0.1134,0.1223,0.1089,0.0797,,,,
Advanced Economies,-0.0221,0.0258,0.0785,0.1174,0.1345,0.121,0.0822,,,,
Emerging Market Economies,-0.0553,0.0406,0.103,0.1028,0.0517,0.0094,-0.0069,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,
"4. Quantile Regression of Real GDP Growth (Regression coefficients, 15th, 50th, and 85th quantiles)",,,,,,,,,,,
,,Percentile,Regression coefficients,,,,,,,,
t,All Countries,0.15,0.0975,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,0.118,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,0.18,,,,,,,,
,Advanced Economies,0.15,0.0275,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,0.0485,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,0.0617,,,,,,,,
,Emerging Market Economies,0.15,0.157,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,0.144,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,0.244,,,,,,,,
t + 2,All Countries,0.15,-0.1,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,-0.0885,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,-0.0421,,,,,,,,
,Advanced Economies,0.15,-0.097,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,-0.078,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,-0.0717,,,,,,,,
,Emerging Market Economies,0.15,-0.188,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,-0.0977,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,0.122,,,,,,,,
t + 4,All Countries,0.15,-0.14,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,-0.112,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,-0.0782,,,,,,,,
,Advanced Economies,0.15,-0.126,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,-0.0896,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,-0.113,,,,,,,,
,Emerging Market Economies,0.15,-0.0896,,,,,,,,
,,0.5,-0.0836,,,,,,,,
,,0.85,0.0118,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,
5. Demand and Supply Effects (Regression coefficients),,,,,,,,,,,
,t,t + 1,t + 2,t + 3,t + 4,t + 5,t + 6,,,,
Joint,-0.0139,-0.0723,-0.1643,-0.2464,-0.247,-0.2139,-0.1599,,,,
Supply,-0.0545,-0.2569,-0.4189,-0.4577,-0.234,-0.3325,-0.517,,,,
Demand,-0.0281,-0.1179,-0.2022,-0.2342,-0.2175,-0.173,-0.125,,,,
,,,,,,,,,,,
6. Real GDP Growth Threshold Effects,,,,,,,,,,,
Household Debt-to-GDP Level,<10,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,90,100
Regression Coefficients,0.4003,-0.0159,-0.0035,-0.3145,-0.284,-0.1978,-0.2106,-0.1304,-0.173,-0.1028,-0.0857