Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting

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Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAF)

Invitation

Session No.: OT 19.18

Location: Montevideo, Uruguay

Date: August 26-30, 2019 (1 week)

Primary Language: Spanish

Target Audience

Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making and staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models.

Qualifications

Participants should have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience. It is strongly recommended that applicants first take the Monetary Policy (MP) course and complete the online Macroeconometric Forecasting (MFx) course before applying for the MPAF. Participants should be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.

Course Description

This course, presented by the IMF Institute for Capacity Development, provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary analysis and forecasting; it emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks. Participants are provided with the tools necessary to develop or extend the model to fit their own monetary policy framework. Country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help them compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.

Course Objectives

Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:

Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using a hands-on Matlab-based model.
Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using a variety of estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
Use the model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of such key macro variables as output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis using their own national data when they return home.

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