IMF Executive Board Completes Tenth Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Mali and approves US$43.85 Million Disbursement
December 10, 2018
- The near term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, although there are considerable downside risks from the fragile security conditions, commodity prices changes, and weather conditions.
- Program implementation is broadly on track.
On December 10, 2018, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Tenth Review of Mali’s performance under an economic program supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. [1] Completion of the review enables the immediate disbursement of SDR 31.65 million (about US$43.85 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 186.6 million (about US$ 258.53 million) or 100 percent of quota.
The ECF arrangement for Mali was approved on December 18, 2013 for SDR 30 million (about US$46.2 million, or 32 percent of quota at the time see Press Release No. 13/524). [2]
Additional access of SDR 68 million (about US$94.21 million), or 73 percent of quota at the time, was approved on June 9, 2016. It was followed by an augmentation of SDR 88.6 million (about US$122.75 million), or 47.5 percent of Mali’s quota approved on July 7, 2017 along with a one-year extension of the program, bringing Mali’s access under the ECF arrangement to SDR 186. 6 million (about US$258.53 million) or 100 percent of quota.
Following the Executive Board’s discussion on Mali, Mr. Mitsuhiro Furusawa, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, made the following statement: [3]
“Mali’s economic performance over the course of the ECF‑supported program has been broadly positive. Macroeconomic stability has been restored under difficult circumstances marked by persistent insecurity, volatile commodity prices, and adverse weather conditions. While the ECF‑supported program catalyzed financing from international donors, the authorities’ reforms over the last five years helped create the foundations for solid growth and subdued inflation. However, meaningfully reducing poverty has remained a challenge.
“Program implementation was broadly on track at end‑June 2018, although progress on structural reforms has been slower than expected. The authorities are taking important steps to address the tax revenue shortfall in 2018, including through intensified revenue collection and spending cuts.
“The near‑term macroeconomic outlook remains favorable, although there are considerable downside risks from the fragile security conditions, commodity prices changes, and weather conditions. The 2019 draft budget provides an adequate basis for fiscal policy and reflects the authorities’ commitment to meeting the WAEMU fiscal deficit target. Pursuing ambitious fiscal reforms going forward would help address emerging fiscal risks and make room for needed security, social and capital spending, while maintaining a sustainable deficit. Steadfast efforts to improve public finance and debt management would also boost the policy framework.
“To build upon and sustain the progress achieved, the authorities should pursue the structural reforms set in motion during the program to promote private activity, economic diversification, and foster sustained, inclusive growth.”
| Table 1. Mali: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2013–23 | ||||||||||||||||
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
||||||
|
Est. |
Prog.1
|
Est. |
Prog. |
Proj. |
Prog. |
Proj. |
Projections |
|||||||||
|
(Annual Change in percentage) |
||||||||||||||||
|
National income and prices |
||||||||||||||||
|
Real GDP |
2.3 |
7.1 |
6.2 |
5.8 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
||
|
GDP deflator |
0.6 |
1.3 |
2.9 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
||
|
Consumer price inflation (average) |
-2.4 |
2.7 |
1.4 |
-1.8 |
0.2 |
1.8 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
||
|
Consumer price inflation (end of period) |
0.0 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
-0.8 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
||
|
External sector (percent change) |
||||||||||||||||
|
Terms of trade (deterioration -) |
-16.6 |
5.5 |
18.6 |
15.5 |
-6.4 |
-1.3 |
-2.6 |
-4.9 |
0.9 |
-3.1 |
-0.2 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
||
|
Real effective exchange rate (depreciation -) |
0.5 |
1.9 |
-3.5 |
-1.9 |
… |
0.7 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
||
|
Money and credit (contribution to broad money growth) |
||||||||||||||||
|
Credit to the government |
-2.7 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
10.4 |
6.9 |
3.9 |
14.5 |
7.4 |
3.0 |
5.0 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
||
|
Credit to the economy |
7.5 |
12.4 |
14.6 |
13.7 |
10.8 |
6.3 |
8.5 |
7.5 |
8.9 |
9.8 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
||
|
Broad money (M2) |
7.4 |
7.1 |
13.2 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
7.9 |
16.2 |
7.0 |
8.0 |
7.3 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
||
|
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) |
||||||||||||||||
|
Investment and saving |
||||||||||||||||
|
Gross domestic investment |
19.3 |
20.2 |
20.8 |
22.7 |
20.0 |
22.1 |
19.6 |
20.6 |
19.7 |
20.9 |
21.6 |
21.7 |
21.8 |
21.8 |
||
|
Of which: government |
6.0 |
6.5 |
7.3 |
8.9 |
9.9 |
8.8 |
9.5 |
8.1 |
9.6 |
8.9 |
9.6 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.8 |
||
|
Gross national savings |
16.4 |
15.5 |
15.4 |
15.5 |
11.8 |
16.2 |
13.0 |
13.2 |
13.4 |
13.6 |
14.2 |
14.5 |
14.8 |
15.0 |
||
|
Of which: government |
3.9 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
3.1 |
6.8 |
3.1 |
5.6 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
||
|
Gross domestic savings |
4.3 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
5.8 |
1.9 |
6.3 |
4.2 |
4.8 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
10.2 |
||
|
Central government finance |
||||||||||||||||
|
Revenue |
14.5 |
14.9 |
16.4 |
16.7 |
18.3 |
18.4 |
19.4 |
17.9 |
18.7 |
18.5 |
19.1 |
19.3 |
19.6 |
19.9 |
||
|
Grants |
2.8 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
1.6 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
||
|
Total expenditure and net lending |
19.8 |
20.0 |
20.9 |
22.3 |
24.0 |
22.9 |
23.9 |
22.1 |
23.3 |
23.5 |
24.1 |
24.4 |
24.6 |
24.9 |
||
|
Overall balance (payment order basis, including grants) |
-2.4 |
-2.9 |
-1.8 |
-3.9 |
-3.5 |
-2.9 |
-3.3 |
-3.3 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
||
|
Overall balance (cash basis, including grants) |
-2.4 |
-2.4 |
-3.2 |
-3.9 |
-3.4 |
-2.6 |
-3.6 |
-3.5 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-3.0 |
-2.9 |
-2.9 |
-2.9 |
||
|
Basic fiscal balance (WAEMU def.) 2 |
-0.7 |
-1.2 |
0.5 |
-1.9 |
-1.1 |
-0.9 |
-1.3 |
-1.3 |
-1.1 |
-1.1 |
-0.9 |
-0.9 |
-0.7 |
-0.7 |
||
|
External sector |
||||||||||||||||
|
Current external balance, including official transfers |
-2.9 |
-4.7 |
-5.3 |
-7.2 |
-8.1 |
-5.9 |
-6.5 |
-7.4 |
-6.3 |
-7.2 |
-7.4 |
-7.2 |
-7.0 |
-6.8 |
||
|
Current external balance, excluding official transfers |
-12.4 |
-12.7 |
-12.3 |
-14.6 |
-16.6 |
-13.0 |
-13.6 |
-14.2 |
-13.5 |
-14.6 |
-14.4 |
-13.9 |
-13.4 |
-8.8 |
||
|
Exports of goods and services |
24.9 |
22.6 |
24.0 |
23.5 |
23.1 |
23.1 |
22.7 |
23.1 |
21.1 |
21.5 |
19.9 |
18.9 |
18.0 |
17.2 |
||
|
Imports of goods and services |
39.9 |
38.1 |
39.6 |
40.3 |
41.2 |
38.9 |
38.0 |
38.9 |
36.7 |
38.1 |
36.7 |
35.3 |
34.0 |
28.8 |
||
|
Debt service to exports of goods and services |
2.3 |
3.5 |
5.8 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
4.1 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
5.8 |
5.9 |
6.2 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
||
|
External debt (end period) |
21.5 |
21.1 |
22.6 |
25.0 |
25.3 |
24.4 |
23.4 |
24.8 |
23.2 |
24.2 |
24.0 |
23.8 |
23.9 |
23.8 |
||
|
Memorandum items: |
||||||||||||||||
|
Nominal GDP (CFAF billions) |
6,541 |
7,093 |
7,748 |
8,308 |
8,868 |
8,929 |
9,474 |
9,557 |
10,057 |
10,221 |
10,950 |
11,727 |
12,564 |
13,460 |
||
|
WAEMU gross official reserves (billions of US$)4 |
13.8 |
13.3 |
12.5 |
10.5 |
… |
13.0 |
… |
15.1 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
||
|
(percent of broad money) |
49.9 |
47.2 |
44.0 |
35.3 |
… |
35.3 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
||
|
(months of WAEMU imports of GNFS) |
4.5 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
3.8 |
… |
3.8 |
… |
4.3 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
||
|
Public Debt (Percent of GDP) |
26.4 |
27.4 |
30.7 |
35.9 |
31.8 |
35.4 |
35.9 |
37.3 |
36.6 |
37.5 |
38.1 |
38.7 |
39.3 |
39.5 |
||
|
Domestic debt (end period) 3 |
4.9 |
6.3 |
8.0 |
11.0 |
6.5 |
11.0 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
13.4 |
13.3 |
14.1 |
14.9 |
15.5 |
15.8 |
||
|
US$ exchange rate (end of period) |
478.7 |
532.0 |
603.1 |
622.2 |
… |
554.2 |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
… |
||
|
Gold Price (US$/fine ounce London fix) |
1411 |
1266 |
1160 |
1248 |
1254 |
1257 |
1340 |
1261 |
1375 |
1218 |
1255 |
1304 |
1343 |
1382 |
||
|
Petroleum price (crude spot)(US$/bbl) |
104 |
96 |
51 |
43 |
55 |
53 |
62 |
69 |
58 |
69 |
66 |
63 |
61 |
60 |
||
|
Sources: Ministry of Finance; and IMF staff estimates and projections. 1 IMF Country Report No. 17/209, Mali: Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement.2 Total revenue, plus general budgetary grants, plus revenue from HIPC debt relief, minus total expenditure and net lending excluding foreign-financed capital spending. 3 Includes BCEAO statutory advances, government bonds, treasury bills, and other debts. 4 Values for 2018 are for end-September 2018. All other years are end-December. |
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[1] The ECF is a lending arrangement that provides sustained program engagement over the medium to long term in case of protracted balance of payments problems.
[2] For more detail on the ECF arrangement for Mali and the country’s broader economic outlook, go to: www.imf.org/mali.
[3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.
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