Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have they Worked in Practice?
Electronic Access:
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Summary:
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.
Series:
Working Paper No. 2004/052
Subject:
Currency crises Early warning systems Exchange rate adjustments Exchange rate arrangements Financial crises Foreign exchange
English
Publication Date:
March 1, 2004
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451847284/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA0522004
Pages:
45
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