IMF Executive Board Concludes 2009 Article

IV Consultation with the United Kingdom

Public Information Notice (PIN) No. 09/84
July 16, 2009

Public Information Notices (PINs) form part of the IMF's efforts to promote transparency of the IMF's views and analysis of economic developments and policies. With the consent of the country (or countries) concerned, PINs are issued after Executive Board discussions of Article IV consultations with member countries, of its surveillance of developments at the regional level, of post-program monitoring, and of ex post assessments of member countries with longer-term program engagements. PINs are also issued after Executive Board discussions of general policy matters, unless otherwise decided by the Executive Board in a particular case. The staff report (use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view this pdf file) for the 2009 Article IV Consultation with the United Kingdom is also available.

On July 10, 2009 the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with the United Kingdom.1

Background

The United Kingdom has been hit hard by the global financial crisis. The economy was particularly vulnerable to the crisis because of the large size of its financial sector, high household indebtedness, and strong cross-border links. Economic growth has turned sharply negative since mid-2008, house prices have fallen by more than 20 percent from their peak, the unemployment rate has increased and inflation has come down. Driven by increased risk perceptions, sterling has depreciated significantly between mid-2007 and early 2009, helping to narrow the UK’s external imbalances, before regaining some strength in recent months. With banks focused on reducing leverage, the growth of credit to the private sector has fallen to nearly zero, and is expected to remain low in the near term.

In response to the crisis, the authorities have taken wide-ranging measures to stabilize the financial system and support demand. The measures included expansion of the Bank of England’s liquidity facilities, significant public capital injections in several large banks, an Asset Protection Scheme to limit losses on troubled bank assets, and guarantees for banks’ debt. Considerable policy stimulus has also been introduced to support the economy. The Bank of England reduced interest rates to a historic low of 0.5 percent by March 2009 and began purchasing assets, financed by an expansion of base money (quantitative easing). Meanwhile, the government has put in place a discretionary fiscal stimulus package of around 2 percent of GDP. These policies have helped avert a systemic breakdown in the financial system, although vulnerabilities remain.

The crisis and the ensuing recession have led to a rapid deterioration of public finances. With revenues highly sensitive to the economic cycle, financial sector activity, and asset prices, fiscal deficits have widened sharply and are expected to be about 13 percent of GDP in 2009 and 2010. Gross general government debt is set to double over the next five years to nearly 100 percent of GDP. At the same time, contingent liabilities of the government have increased rapidly.

The economic outlook is highly uncertain. Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has begun to stabilize. However, the recovery is likely to be slow and subdued as banks and households go through a difficult balance sheet adjustment. GDP is expected to contract by 4.2 percent in 2009, with growth picking up gradually in 2010. As spare capacity continues to increase, inflation is expected to fall below the 2-percent target in the second half of 2009 and remain low for an extended period of time.

Executive Board Assessment

The Executive Directors noted that the UK economy has been hit hard by the global financial crisis and welcomed the UK authorities’ aggressive policy response. The measures taken to stabilize the financial system have been successful in averting a systemic breakdown. The significant fiscal and monetary stimulus underway will help support activity in the near-term. There are tentative signs that economic activity is stabilizing. However, Directors pointed out that the outlook for the UK economy is highly uncertain and will depend on, among other factors, the pace and extent of deleveraging of financial institutions’ and households’ balance sheets.

Directors considered that, looking forward, the projected sharp increase in public debt, the accumulation of sizable contingent liabilities, and continued financial sector fragility represent significant vulnerabilities. They therefore emphasized the importance of following credible and consistent policies to maintain domestic and external stability, limit downside risks, and strengthen market confidence. Resolving the problems in the financial sector and setting monetary and fiscal policies consistent with a firm commitment to price stability and fiscal sustainability are the main policy priorities.

Directors stressed that the most important policy task remains repairing the financial system. Significant uncertainties remain about the adverse impact of the recession on asset quality. Substantial further write-downs would result in an erosion of capital buffers and might lead to renewed doubts about the capital adequacy of individual financial institutions. These lingering uncertainties are restraining lending growth. Directors suggested that the authorities should encourage banks to strengthen their capital base and explore options to improve capital structures. The authorities should also continue their contingency planning, and a number of Directors agreed that they should be prepared to provide further public capital, if needed.

Directors welcomed the adoption of the Special Resolution Regime for financial institutions and noted that its effective implementation would require timely and comprehensive information sharing and cooperation among the tripartite authorities. The UK authorities should continue to work with international partners, including the EU, on strengthening cross-border financial stability arrangements and resolution frameworks, for example through the development of effective arrangements for crisis management and orderly exit of cross-border banks.

Directors supported a number of the proposals for enhancing the UK’s prudential framework presented in the Turner Review and in the white paper on reforming financial markets published by the Treasury. In particular, Directors endorsed the proposed enhancement of liquidity regulation, the increased emphasis on identifying system-wide risks, and proposals for a Council for Financial Stability. They encouraged the authorities to continue working with international partners on the development of new macro-prudential instruments that could help mitigate the amplitude of credit cycles. Many Directors considered that a phased introduction of a maximum gross leverage ratio could act as a useful backstop against excessive balance sheet growth. Finally, Directors recommended improving the frequency and quality of disclosure of financial information by banks.

Executive Directors considered the Bank of England’s strategy of aggressive monetary easing, aimed at maintaining inflation close to target, to be appropriate, while noting it is too early to judge the overall effectiveness of quantitative easing. Directors noted that diversifying the Bank of England’s private asset purchases further could help improve the functioning of capital markets. They welcomed the robust institutional arrangement underpinning the Bank of England’s unconventional operations, including comprehensive indemnity assurances from the Treasury. These arrangements preserve the Bank of England’s operational independence and will help assure a smooth exit from quantitative easing when warranted by economic conditions.

Directors emphasized that the success of the current policy package depends on continued trust in the sustainability of the fiscal position. A strong commitment to reverse the sharp deterioration of the public finances once the economic recovery has been established, within the context of a coherent and ambitious fiscal framework, will be essential. The focus of fiscal consolidation plans should be on putting public debt on a firmly downward path within a reasonable timeframe. Credibility would be enhanced by specifying concrete expenditure and revenue measures to achieve the desired adjustment. Long-term sustainability would also be helped by implementing structural reforms to limit the rise in ageing-related costs.


United Kingdom: Selected Economic and Social Indicators


 

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

 

        Proj. Proj.

Real Economy

     

 

 

 

Real GDP (change in percent)

2.2 2.9 2.6 0.7 -4.2 0.2

Domestic demand (change in percent)

2.1 2.4 3.0 0.5 -5.0 -0.3

CPI

2.1 2.3 2.3 3.6 1.7 1.3

Unemployment rate (in percent) 1/

4.8 5.4 5.4 5.5 7.6 9.2

Gross national saving (percent of GDP)

14.5 14.2 15.6 15.3 11.8 12.4

Gross domestic investment (percent of GDP)

17.1 17.5 18.3 17.0 14.1 14.4

 

     

 

 

 

Public Finance 2/

     

 

 

 

General government balance

-3.0 -2.6 -2.7 -7.0 -13.1 -13.3

Public sector balance

-3.0 -2.3 -2.4 -6.1 -12.8 -13.1

Cyclically adjusted balance (staff estimates)

-2.8 -2.2 -2.8 -5.5 -9.9 -9.5

Public sector net debt

35.6 36.2 36.5 42.1 56.4 67.9

Money and Credit (end-period, 12-month percent change)

           

M4

12.8 12.5 12.3 16.4 17.4 ...

Consumer Credit

9.6 7.4 7.0 4.5 2.1 ...

 

           

Interest rates (year average)

           

Three-month interbank rate

4.7 5.3 6.0 5.5 1.9 ...

Ten-year government bond yield

4.4 4.5 5.0 4.6 3.5 ...
             

Balance of Payments

     

 

 

 

Trade balance (in percent of GDP)

-3.4 -3.1 -3.2 -2.7 -2.3 -2.0

Current account balance (in percent of GDP)

-2.6 -3.3 -2.7 -1.7 -2.2 -2.0

Exports (percent of GDP)

26.4 28.5 26.6 29.1 26.7 27.2

Export volume (change in percent)

7.9 11.3 -2.8 0.8 -12.9 0.7

Imports (percent of GDP)

29.8 31.6 29.8 31.8 29.0 29.2

Import volume (change in percent)

7.1 8.8 -0.7 -0.6 -14.2 -1.0

Net exports of oil (in billions of US dollars)

-4.0 -5.1 -8.1 -10.1 -4.9 -6.1

Reserves (end of period, in billion of US dollars)

46.2 51.8 57.2 53.9 ... ...
             

Fund Position (as of April 30, 2009)

   

 

 

 

 

Holdings of currency (in percent of quota)

 

 

 

 

 

86.3

Holdings of SDRs (in percent of allocation)

 

 

 

 

 

15.2

Quota (in millions of SDRs)

 

 

 

 

 

10,738.5
             

Exchange Rates

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exchange rate regime

 

 

 

 

 

Floating

Bilateral rate (May 26, 2009)

   

 

 

 

US$ = £0.6272

Nominal effective rate (2000=100) 3/

100.0 100.8 103.1 90.9 78.4 ...

Real effective rate (2000=100) 3/ 4/

101.4 103.2 108.0 95.0 80.5 ...

Social Indicators (reference year):

Income per capita (in US dollars, 2007) : 46.716; Income distribution (ratio of income received by top and bottom quintiles, 2007): 5.5;

Life expectancy at birth (2005): 77.1 (male) and 81.1 (female); Automobile ownership (2004): 463 per thousand;

CO2 emissions (ton per capita, 2005): 9.26; Population density (2007) 252 inhabitants per sq. km.;

Poverty rate (at-risk-of-poverty rate after social transfers, 2007): 19 percent.


Sources: National Statistics; HM Treasury; Bank of England; International Financial Statistics; INS; World Development Indicators; and IMF staff estimates.

1/ ILO unemployment; based on Labor Force Survey data.

2/ The fiscal year begins in April. For example, fiscal balance data for 2002 refers to FY2002/03. Debt stock data refers to the end of

3/ Average. An increase denotes an appreciation.

4/ Based on Consumer Price data.


1 Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board. At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country's authorities.



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